Too Fun to Check: Dead Heat in NJ Gubernatorial Race?

Has the Garden State suddenly turned purple — or, gasp, slightly red? Not quite, but a new poll out of New Jersey’s gubernatorial race may shock Democrats even more than the latest from Reuters.

Until today, the race between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli looked relatively sleepy. Only three pollsters even bothered with it, and Sherrill had leads in all three that one would expect a Democrat to get: +9, +10, +7. Today, however, Emerson’s new survey shows the two candidates locked in a solid tie at 43% — Sherrill’s lowest rating, and Ciattarelli’s highest:

NEW JERSEY POLL – Governor

🟦 Mikie Sherrill: 43%
🟥 Jack Ciattarelli: 43%
🟨 Other: 3%
⬜ Not sure: 11%

Emerson (A) | 9/22-23 | 935 LVhttps://t.co/4xwet2tQ2n pic.twitter.com/1Fgk2upexX

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2025

A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New Jersey voters finds 43% of voters support Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciatarelli, respectively; 11% of voters are undecided. 

“The first Emerson College general election survey of New Jersey’s 2025 election for Governor reveals a tightly contested race in the Garden State,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%. The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% among this group.”  

“A stark gender divide also emerges among Garden State voters: women break for Sherrill by ten points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%. Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men,” Kimball added. 

That last part has to sting for Sherrill, whose gender was expected to play a key role in securing the election. It may be playing against her as men break harder for Ciattarelli, and with more resolve. Having 15% of women undecided about Sherrill in the general-election stage strongly suggests that a substantial number may be flip to Ciattarelli, without the potential to flip enough men back to the Democrat to matter. 

That’s one red flag, but there are others. At the moment, the Democrat incumbent in the office is deeply unpopular, which means voters in the Garden State may be looking for change:

Governor Phil Murphy holds a 35% job approval rating, and 44% disapprove of the job he is doing; 21% are neutral. Since May, the Governor’s approval rating has decreased five points, from 40% to 35%. President Donald Trump holds a 41% job approval and 51% disapproval rating; 9% are neutral.

Let’s emphasize this: Democrat Phil Murphy has a job approval rating six points lower than Donald Trump. In New Jersey. Some reasons for this are specific to New Jersey, of course. Voters are unhappy about property taxes, and Murphy gets a big share of the blame, individually and as part of the establishment, Emerson finds. They’re also blaming Murphy for rising utility costs, in combination with the utility companies. 

However, the issue set matters here too. A clear majority (51%) believe the economy is the top issue facing New Jersey, with “threats to democracy” a distant second at 13%. Housing prices (11%), healthcare (6%), immigration policy (5%), and crime (5%) follow. Right now, Democrats are not exactly wowing voters on any of these issues in the Reuters/Ipsos national poll:

.@Reuters/@Ipsos

Which party has a better plan?

Crime: R🔴+20
Immigration: R🔴+18
Foreign conflicts: R🔴+12
Economy: R🔴+10
Corruption: R🔴+6
Gun control: R🔴+4
Political extremism: R🔴+4

Environment: D🔵+14
Women’s rights: D🔵+13
Healthcare: D🔵+9
Respect for democracy: D🔵+2 pic.twitter.com/zcwPxrkcrH

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) September 23, 2025

Sure, Democrats get a +9 on healthcare and a +2 on “threats to democracy,” but that’s weak tea compared to the GOP’s +10 on the economy — especially when that’s the top issue for 51% of the electorate. For the 10% who selected either immigration or crime, the massive Republican lead is probably pushing them toward a change of pace in the Garden State. 

This is just one poll, of course. Emerson is a solid pollster, though, and this survey had a sample of 935 likely voters, so it should be at least somewhat predictive. With this poll included, the current RCP tracking average has Sherrill up 6.5 points, but only Emerson and Quinnipiac (Sherrill +9) surveyed after the Charlie Kirk assassination and the rising spike in violence coming from the Left. Given those dynamics and the issue set, it’s possible that Republicans could pull a stunning surprise in New Jersey.

And if they can do that in New Jersey, they may be able to do it in Virginia, too. The polls in that gubernatorial election may get very interesting, indeed. 

Note: Big thanks to David Strom for sending this over to me. 

Update: I consistently misspelled Sherrill’s last name in the original post with only one R. I have fixed it now, and I apologize to Ms. Sherrill for the error. 

Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.

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