CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten reported Wednesday that President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees have a historically high likelihood of being confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
Enten highlighted long-standing trends that favor successful confirmations, particularly when the president’s party controls the Senate.
“The bottom line here, very clear, very few cabinet nominations are either withdrawn or rejected, most get on through,” Enten stated. “The odds on [a cabinet member getting rejected] are low, really, really low.”
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Enten noted that the Senate has not rejected a cabinet nominee when the president’s party held control of the chamber since 1925.
The last time a nominee was rejected while the opposition party controlled the Senate was in 1989, with the failed nomination of former Texas Senator John Tower.
Since the founding of the United States, only 29 cabinet nominations have been either withdrawn or rejected, emphasizing the rarity of such outcomes.
Enten shared data from betting markets that reflect an overwhelmingly positive outlook for Trump’s nominees for key cabinet positions.
Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director nominee John Ratcliffe, and Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi have confirmation odds of 99%, 96%, and 98%, respectively.
“Mamma mia, look how high these are! Pam Bondi, 98%, John Ratcliffe, 96%, Marco Rubio, 99%,” Enten exclaimed during his analysis.
“Look, the bottom line is this. Yes, there’s a few percentage points left on the board, we don’t know what’s gonna happen, but the chance that all three of these get confirmed [is] high, high, sky high.”
While several nominees are almost certain to be confirmed, others face a more uncertain path. Office of the Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth still face scrutiny.
Enten pointed out that Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth recently received an endorsement from Republican Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, who had initially expressed skepticism about his nomination.
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CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten reported Wednesday that President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees have a historically high likelihood of being confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
Enten highlighted… pic.twitter.com/eVi5dR9XiK
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Ernst’s support, following Hegseth’s Tuesday confirmation hearing, bolsters his chances of confirmation.
With historical precedent and strong betting market confidence, most of Trump’s cabinet nominees are expected to face little resistance in the Senate.
As the confirmation process continues, the Republican-controlled Senate appears poised to ensure that Trump’s picks assume their respective roles with minimal delays.
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