Trump to Iran: Feel Like Making a Deal Now?

Here’s a better question: Is there anyone left to make a deal in Tehran? Israel’s surprise attack also had surprising breadth and depth, and has apparently decapitated Iran’s military command. Two dozen or more of their nuclear-weapons scientists are dead as well. The Israeli hit most of the known nuclear facilities several times, and will keep returning to further demolish those threats.

Which prompts another question: What’s left to save?

Donald Trump offered to resume talks “BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE” in a Truth Social post a few hours ago:

I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!

He followed it up with an I hate to say I told you so, but …

Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to “make a deal.” They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei managed to survive the first night of the war. He appeared later on Friday to warn Israel and the US of our “painful fate,” but the first retaliation from Iran turned out to be more pitiful than painful:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel on Friday it faced a “bitter and painful” fate in response to the attack launched overnight against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, as Tehran launched 100 drones toward Israel in its initial response.

The fact that the response was drones rather than ballistic missiles is noteworthy. Iran attacked Israel twice with a mix of both, and one of those attacks exceeded 300 vehicles aimed at Israel. Most but not all of them were knocked down at that time, although the few that did get through did minimal damage. (Ironically, the one fatality was a Palestinian in the West Bank.) 

This time, Iran could only launch drones, and in far fewer number than their previous two direct offensive operations against Israel. That suggests that the IDF and Mossad successfully eliminated the ballistic-missile threat, at least in the short run, and probably degraded the drone threat to some extent. The reported death of the commander in charge of their “aerospace” operations almost certainly had an impact here, too. News reports and social-media video suggested as much last night, but it’s tough to believe that until the initial response could be evaluated.

In the event, the retaliation flopped miserably, so much so that the Israelis partially lifted their shelter-in-place orders:

Israel alerted its citizens on Friday morning that Iran had launched more than 100 drones — which would take several hours to arrive — telling people nationwide to remain near bomb shelters.

Three hours later, the IDF Home Front Command lifted its instruction to Israelis to remain near shelters without a single siren sounding in the country, after it worked to shoot them down outside Israeli territory.

Jordan later claimed to have shot down the drones that entered its airspace. It’s not yet known if the US participated in the defensive action to blunt Iranian retaliation, but we didn’t rule out that action yesterday. We did say that we would not participate in Israel’s offensive actions against Iran, but even that appears to be somewhat qualified. Reports last night indicated that US forces did coordinate with intel and comms while not taking part directly in the operation. 

Those ops continue today, and have apparently resulted in the effective sidelining of the Natanz enrichment facility. However, the nuclear sites at Isfahan and Fordow have not yet been struck:

In a statement citing local authorities, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran’s only nuclear power plant in the southern port city of Bushehr had not been targeted.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, in a statement to a meeting of the watchdog’s board of governors, said the other main enrichment center in Iran, Fordo, was not hit, and neither was another nuclear facility in Isfahan, citing Iranian authorities.

The Israelis would prefer not to hit an operating nuclear power plant, for obvious reasons. They hit the one in Iraq decades ago before Saddam Hussein could bring it on line, and another in Syria that hadn’t yet been fully constructed. It’s too late for a military strike on Bushehr. One has to wonder why Isfahan and Fordow got a pass the first night; perhaps the Israelis are mostly worried about enrichment and focused on Natanz. Or maybe Isfahan and Fordow will be next. 

Anyway, stay tuned. Trump may want to cut a deal now that the hardliners are “all dead,” but the hardliner that actually matters — Khamenei — is still around. For now.

Fox & Friends had a good round-up this morning.