Trump to Iran: Tick. Tock.

Say … where is that USS Abraham Lincoln task force, anyway? Inquiring minds in Tehran really want to know. 

Donald Trump made it clear that his patience with the mullah regime in Iran has run out. Either Ali Khamenei cuts a deal soon, Trump posted on Truth Social two hours ago, or Trump will dismantle the apparatus that props him up. To make the point even more clear, Trump mentioned Venezuela as an example of the potential consequences:

A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter!  President DONALD J. TRUMP

That is a significantly more aggressive posture than Trump has displayed in the weeks since his red line on shooting protesters. Trump initially planned a military response, but changed his mind when his advisers could not provide one that would prove “decisive” to the fate of the regime. Since then, Trump has offered Iran talks about their nuclear-weapons programs and oppression, but Trump has not gotten the response he desired, at least to this point. Most of Iran’s responses have been bellicose in nature, threatening to defeat the US in any war.

This morning’s response from their spokeswoman displays a change in tone, at least:

Iran’s Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Iran hopes disputes are resolved through diplomacy but warned Tehran will take any action needed to defend the country.

She said Iran does not seek war and does not fear it, cautioning that any conflict would spread across… pic.twitter.com/YfAsdUJbD2

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 28, 2026

… cautioning that any conflict would spread across the region and beyond.

Perhaps, but that is much less of a threat than it was before Hamas launched its October 7 war. Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah are shells of their former selves, hammered into collapse if not yet entirely vanquished by Israel. Iran itself got humiliated in the Twelve Day War as Israel achieved air supremacy over Tehran and other parts of the country within hours, and the US destroyed its nuclear-weapons facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. Only the Houthis retain much offensive capacity, and while they are threatening war if the US attacks Iran, they will discover that the US Navy and American combined forces can walk and chew gum at the same time. 

Besides, this is why the USS Abraham Lincoln task force matters. If Trump wanted to conduct strikes on strategic targets in Iran, he could do that with the surface fleet already in the Persian Gulf. The large task force increases that offensive capacity considerably, but its real value is in the robust defensive capacity it will provide. Iran will likely launch ballistic missiles at Israel and Qatar when the US conducts its strikes, and the task group will have assets available to deal with those counterstrikes, not to mention provide a massive counter to those counterstrikes, if and when necessary. The US didn’t conduct strikes in June on any targets except the nuclear-weapons development facilities, but this time around, we could very well take the lead from the Israelis for sustained and precisely targeted strategic strikes on the IRGC, Basij, and other regime assets. 

So … where exactly is the Lincoln group, anyway? They turned off their publicly accessible transponders a week ago while sailing past the westernmost part of Malaysia, on course for Sri Lanka, with the Persian Gulf as their obvious destination. They are likely arriving now or within the next few hours, which may explain Trump’s “time is running out” message this morning. If the task force gets there without a deal from Iran to end its terror campaigns, the next option will be to ensure that they lack the capacity to conduct those campaigns for a very long time. Trump may have held off earlier this month, but he’s organizing the pieces on the chessboard for a reason now. The next demonstration will look different from June’s bunker-buster displays and the seizing of Nicolas Maduro, but it will probably be as “decisive” as Trump can make it under the circumstances without putting boots on the ground. 

Tick. Tock. If action comes, it will likely be before the start of next week. Trump likes weekends for these kinds of actions, but since that’s pretty well known now, perhaps we will see something happen sooner rather than later. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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