Trump: UK Crosses Tariff Finish Line First

A done deal, or a “framework”? Does it matter, in terms of PR and market response? 

Donald Trump teased “a major trade deal” on Truth Social with a “big and highly respected country” late yesterday. This morning, Trump dispensed with the mystery by revealing the United Kingdom as the partner for the new agreement. And then, Trump followed that up a short while ago by declaring it a “full and comprehensive” trade deal:

The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!

That does come as a minor surprise. Rumors had India and Japan closer to a deal than the UK, whose government isn’t exactly Trump-friendly. However, as the Wall Street Journal points out, the US-UK trade gap is also one of the easiest to address, and Keir Starmer has every reason to settle this as quickly as possible:

The U.S. is the U.K.’s biggest single trading partner. British officials have argued that the trading relationship between the two nations is broadly balanced. Trump, a keen Anglophile, in the past has said he thought a deal could be worked out.

Financial markets and other countries will watch the deal’s details closely for signs of the Trump administration’s thinking and its willingness to strike similar deals with other countries, including those that have a far greater trade imbalance with the U.S. than the U.K.

Trump has wanted a marquee trade deal with the UK since Brexit, too. That fits his general preference for bilateral arrangements, as well as his desire to eclipse the EU, financially and politically. However, the WSJ notes another motive for a quick deal with the UK, which is more along the lines of pour encourager les autres:

It could also send a signal to other world leaders over how best to deal with the U.S. president. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has avoided confrontation with Trump over tariffs and the Ukraine war, and instead offered the U.S. leader an unusual second state visit to Britain, including a signed invitation from King Charles. Other countries like China have taken a far more confrontational approach.

There’s nothing subtle about this. The American market is the most lucrative in the world, and to access it, you’d better play nice with the Americans … one in particular. This message is intended to be received in Beijing, and perhaps a few other hostile centers on matters that have less to do with finance and trade. 

The WSJ also offers some skepticism about how “comprehensive” this deal will be. It’s only been five weeks since “Liberation Day,” and a comprehensive deal would normally take months, if not years, to accomplish. It took a couple of years to hammer out the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, for instance, and it didn’t go into effect until July 2020. 

The markets don’t seem to mind, though:

Stock futures were higher Thursday after President Donald Trump announced that a trade deal between the U.S. and United Kingdom had been struck.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 352 points, or 0.9%. S&P 500  and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

Trump will hold a presser at 10 am ET to lay out the details of the agreement. At that point, we should get an idea of how comprehensive it is — as well as what gains Trump got from his tariff strategy. Beijing will be watching closely.