Trump: We Will Seize Ships That Paid the Mullahgeld

Incentives. How do they work again?

After J.D. Vance declared the talks in Islamabad dead when Iran predictably refused to negotiate in good faith or any connection to reality, Donald Trump began making plans for the next phase of the war. Those plans began earlier in the day, when he ordered CENTCOM and the US Navy to clear the Strait of Hormuz and remove the limited number of mines Iran dropped in the passage. Iran responded by repeating its claim of sovereignty over the Strait and its determination to “toll” shipping through it. 

Trump decided to put the William J. LePetomane Tollbooth out of commission. Any ship that pays a toll to Iran, Trump warned on Truth Social, will get seized by the US Navy:

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

The “blockade” period will likely be brief. As soon as minesweeping operations finish and a safe route through the Strait is established, the US will open it back up for everyone – except, perhaps, ships carrying Iranian oil. It’s not clear whether Trump intends to keep allowing Iran to sell its oil as a sop to China and India, but he’s clearly escalating matters in an attempt to force the Iranians to capitulate, especially on nuclear weapons. 

Trump alluded that the Iranians may have budged on other matters in a follow-up post, but refused to surrender their highly enriched uranium. And that is the whole ballgame:

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

That’s a curiously friendly way to refer to the Iranian negotiating team. Perhaps that’s just Trump making the argument that this isn’t personal, Sonny … it’s just business. 

At any rate, the threat to seize ships that pay the Mullahgeld resets the whole tollbooth market in and around the Persian Gulf. Iran no longer has a navy to enforce the tolls, although they can still do damage with missiles and drones in the Strait of Hormuz … for now. Missile destroyers entering into the Gulf through the Strait provide a robust umbrella, and the US has five carrier groups in and around the theater to chase down tankers and container ships, with lots of Marines around to board and seize them. Iran’s markets for “tolls” will dry up very quickly. 

Incentives. Gotta love them.

The Iranians understand that business is back on, one way or the other. They are deploying “special forces” to the coast to defend against an American invasion:

State media in Iran said the country had deployed navy special forces along its southern coastline, signaling its preparations for a potential land invasion by U.S. forces, after the collapse of peace talks in Pakistan. Iranian state outlet Student News Network published pictures of soldiers in camouflage deployed near a sandy coastline to “counter any possible enemy infiltration into the country’s territory,” the network said.

Assuming this is true, it’s sheer idiocy. Deploying forces into the open while having no air or sea defenses whatsoever would be a suicide mission for these troops before they see any landing at all. The A-10 Warthogs would chew them to pieces within hours, if the US were inclined to make landings on the shores of mainland Iran, let alone what naval artillery would accomplish first. Did no one in Tehran study the history of American amphibious landings?

We’re not going to invade the mainland anyway, and certainly not in a direct frontal assault. We don’t have the personnel for that, nor do we have any strategic objectives to justify it. The most likely next phase for the Iranian mainland in Bridge And Power Plant Day, which may take place soon. The only use for ground troops in the next phase would be to seize islands, not the coastline, such as Kharg, Abu Masa, and Larak. Those are real strategic targets, and almost certainly beyond Iran’s capacity to defend now. 

Or, perhaps Trump will be satisfied with just reopening the Strait and humiliating the regime by seizing its shipping. Iran will respond by firing missiles and drones in all directions again, though, and Israel will definitely want to target the energy and transportation sectors in Iran when the war re-escalates. Bridge And Power Plant Day is coming soon whether Trump wants it as an opener or not, unless the regime remnants decide to bug out and leave Iran to the Persian people for the first time in 47 years. 

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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