UAE to Trump: Let’s Force the Strait Open for Good

At least someone reads Donald Trump’s Truth Social feed. Not surprisingly, it’s the one nation that can least afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, not to mention the country that has borne the brunt of Iran’s missile and drone attacks. 

The United Arab Emirates has repeatedly urged Trump and the US to finish off the regime in Iran, not just because of that missile threat but also because of Iran’s attempts to hold the Strait hostage. And unlike Europe, the emirs will put their money and their military where their collective mouth is. The Wall Street Journal reports that the UAE wants to go to the UN Security Council first, but that may be a problem:

The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

The U.A.E. is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize such action, the officials said. Emirati diplomats have urged the U.S. and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force, a U.A.E official said, adding that the Iranian regime thinks it is fighting for its existence and is willing to bring the global economy down with it in a chokehold on the strait.

The U.A.E. official said the country was actively reviewing how it could play a military role in securing the strait, including efforts to help clear it of mines and other support services.

The UAE may wait a long time to get the UNSC to act. Russia and China are assisting Iran in this war without entering it for themselves. Both nations hold a veto on any UNSC proposal. For that matter, so do the UK and France, neither of which support the war and both of which have balked at providing security in the Gulf. It’s possible that any proposal to authorize the use of force to reopen the Strait could get four vetoes, especially since the proposal would act as a tacit endorsement of the war that Trump launched to end all of Iran’s threats i the region. 

Maybe France and the UK would abstain, but it’s almost certain that Russia and China would block such a measure. One has to wonder why the UAE would even bother with the same UN that has been appeasing Iran for the last 47 years on everything from terrorism to its human-rights record. Maybe Abu Dhabi should talk to their new friends in Jerusalem to learn just how useful Turtle Bay will be on this matter, or any other matter.

What could a country the size of UAE contribute to military operations? Surprisingly, the emirate has a substantial and modernized military, with an armed force of 65,000 and the best equipment money can buy. They may also have a target in mind:

The Gulf state has also said the U.S. should occupy islands in the strategic waterway including Abu Musa, which has been held by Iran for a half-century and is claimed by the U.A.E., some of the Arab officials said.

The UAE can’t seize the Abu Masa group on its own, but it wouldn’t need to do so. The US Navy can provide the logistics for a UAE assault on the island after a US/Israeli air campaign to greatly reduce the Iranian grip on it. Giving control of Abu Masa to the UAE would reduce Iran’s ability to harass shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and it would allow the US to use our own ground personnel elsewhere – Kharg Island being the most obvious target. If the US can convince the Saudis to seize Larak (or the UAE to take both), that might go a long way toward negating Iran’s threat to global shipping. Qeshm might be an even more enticing target.

The real threat to the Iranian regime isn’t UAE’s military, though. The regime has much more to fear from Dubai’s banks:

The U.A.E.’s newly assertive approach is a fundamental shift in its strategic outlook, said officials from a Persian Gulf state. The U.A.E.’s commercial center, Dubai, has long financed the Iranian regime. Emirati diplomats were racing to mediate between the U.S. and Iran before the war, an effort that included a visit to Abu Dhabi by Ali Larijani, an Iranian national-security official who later died in an airstrike.

The UAE might do better to seize Iran’s assets for reparantions than in seizing Abu Masa. Of course, the emirs could choose to do both. 

The most important part of this new push for action is the momentum it represents for Trump in the region. The UAE had spent decades playing footsie with Iran in the hope of keeping the mullahs in line. They laundered Iran’s money and counseled appeasement to a long series of American administrations. Those days are over in Abu Dhabi, no matter what happens to the regime in Tehran. Iran is not coming back from this. 

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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