Virginia Democrat’s Lead Erodes Amid Familiar Mistake On Key Issue

The Democratic candidate in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial election is watching her lead erode amid a familiar clash that led to a Republican victory in the 2021 race.

With less than three months until Election Day, Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial race is becoming increasingly competitive, as Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears closes the gap with her opponent, former Democratic Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger.

A Roanoke College poll released Tuesday shows Sears trailing Spanberger by seven points. In comparison, a previous poll from May had Spanberger leading by 17 points in the 2025 governor’s race.

🚨 NEW AD: Abigail Spanberger is hiding from voters because she’s sold out to extremist nonsense.

You have my word I will always stand with you and with common sense. pic.twitter.com/2RT8FaaQMO

— Winsome Earle-Sears (@winwithwinsome) August 22, 2025

As public polls show the race tightening, Sears told the Daily Caller in an exclusive interview that she always believed the contest to be winnable.

“Our polling showed that we were much closer and even my opponent said that this was a toss-up race, but the mainstream media would not believe her because they want her to win,” Sears said.

But Sears now has extra momentum thanks to a renewed debate over gender ideology in schools — an issue that was pivotal in Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory. Questions about how schools should handle transgender students and how much say parents should have in the public education system are once again emerging as a central focus in the final stretch of the 2025 race. (RELATED: ‘She Is In Hiding’: GOP Nom In Key Race Knocks Dem Opponent’s Silence On Protecting Girls Spaces)

The discussion was reignited after America First Legal (AFL) sent a letter in July to the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Department of Education (DOE), urging an investigation into five Virginia school districts for allegedly failing to protect girls’ facilities.

Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) is also once again in the spotlight for punishing a group of boys who objected to a biological girl who identifies as transgender entering their locker room and allegedly recording them. Two of the three boys who complained have been suspended.

Sears has been outspoken about the suspension of the boys and the five Northern Virginia districts that are accused of violating Title IX. The lieutenant governor attended an Arlington County School Board meeting on Thursday to hammer the issue.

“It’s dangerous, it’s insane, and it has to stop,” she said, addressing the school board. “Here’s the truth: there are two sexes, boys and girls.”

“It is interesting to me that we have these five Northern Virginia school boards who are willing to risk not millions but hundreds of millions of dollars for their ideology,” Sears later said in an interview with WUSA9.

Spanberger, meanwhile, has not offered much substance in response to the issue. ABC 7News sent a list of questions to Spanberger’s campaign in early August in an attempt to clarify where she stands on school bathroom, locker room and sports policies.

“Abigail is a mom of three kids in Virginia public schools — the safety of Virginia’s kids is Abigail’s top priority, and she believes that parents have the right to make decisions about what is best for their children,” the Democrat’s campaign said in reply.

Spanberger also accused Sears of backing the Trump administration’s “threats to strip funding from Virginia schools” but did not directly address concerns about the Virginia schools’ alleged Title IX violations.

The fight over gender ideology and the tightening race is reminiscent of similar conditions during the 2021 gubernatorial race between Youngkin and former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

Youngkin’s campaign capitalized on McAuliffe’s stance against parental involvement in schools, which ultimately shifted momentum in the blue state. Youngkin spent the early part of his campaign meeting with parents’ groups concerned about Covid school closures, transgender bathroom policies, boys in girls’ sports and DEI curricula. When the opponents met for a debate in late September, McAuliffe declared, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The statement became central to campaign ads from Youngkin’s team. (RELATED: Terry McAuliffe: ‘I Don’t Think Parents Should Be Telling Schools What They Should Teach’) 

A Republican strategist involved in Virginia’s 2025 elections affirmed to the Daily Caller that the current dynamics in the gubernatorial race echo what happened in the 2021 gubernatorial election — but with trends developing possibly even earlier than four years ago.

“The dynamic that’s playing out now is very similar to what played out in 2021, where you had a very potent issue pop at the final stretch of this election. I think you’ll just continue to see the polls close as Winsome really stands out from Abigail Stanberger as someone with conviction, courage and common sense priorities on the stuff that’s so important to people,” the strategist explained.

Matthew Hurtt, chair of the Arlington GOP, pointed to the importance of Republicans eating into Democratic strongholds in Virginia’s traditionally bluer northern regions. Taking advantage of cross-party issues like gender ideology and parental rights in schools could accomplish that goal, as was shown in 2021.

“Arlington was 10% of Governor Youngkin’s victory margin in 2021. That is to say, the difference in the votes from 2020 to 2021, it was about a 6,000 vote difference. That’s what I’m focused on, being just one part of Northern Virginia,” Hurtt said. “We don’t have to win it — it’s unlikely that we would win Northern Virginia in a statewide election — but we just have to reduce those margins.”

Sears’s appearance at the Arlington School Board meeting last week made the gender ideology issue even more salient, as a Democratic activist went viral for holding up a sign racially targeting Sears, who would be the nation’s first female black governor if elected. (RELATED: ‘Tolerant Left’: Black GOP Nominee Blasts White Liberal’s Racist Protest Sign)

“Hey Winsome, if the trans can’t share your bathroom then blacks can’t share my bathroom,” the sign said.

One woke freak’s sign targeting @WinsomeSears today. pic.twitter.com/ZeWGc0CTMD

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 22, 2025

Sears said that although she is now a public figure, she has never gotten used to “racist language” from her opponents.

“You never get used to seeing racist symbols, racist language, but I’m an adult and so I can brush it off. But this is not about me, this is about the young child who will see this and wonder why is this happening in a new century,” she reflected.

Spanberger condemned the sign as “racist and abhorrent,” but a top Virginia Democrats official accused Sears of stoking the racial attack, writing, “What happened in Arlington wasn’t just about a meeting. It was about the climate Winsome Sears is creating, one where contempt is currency and neighbors are turned against each other.”

What happened in Arlington wasn’t just about a meeting. It was about the climate Winsome Sears is creating, one where contempt is currency and neighbors are turned against each other.@SpanbergerForVA is running on something stronger: a Virginia where we solve problems, not…

— Marc Broklawski (@marcbroklawski) August 23, 2025

Ian Prior, the former Executive Director of Fight for Schools and a prominent activist who helped push Youngkin over the finish line in 2021, argued that Democrats in Northern Virginia are again alienating voters by pushing radical gender policies in schools — and by relying on personal attacks like the one employed by the Democratic activist on Thursday.

“Northern Virginia’s school systems are once again using children as pawns in their subservience to the idea that men can be women and women can be men,” Prior told the Caller. “Now their outside allied activists are threatening to return to Jim Crow laws if grown men aren’t allowed to change in front of young children in girls’ locker rooms and restrooms.”

“This issue has become electoral poison for the left, yet it looks like they are so captured by their radical base that they are willing to set their chances on fire again this November,” he asserted.

The Republican strategist noted that Youngkin also trailed McAuliffe in public polls throughout the summer and fall of 2021, but the race grew increasingly close as they got closer to Election Day.

“Just naturally, a lot of these polling organizations are from pretty disreputable sources. Obviously, you can get the nitty-gritty of how they actually conduct polls, but I think the energy felt on the ground — especially towards the fall of Governor Youngkin’s win — was really palpable,” the strategist explained.

Hurtt said that although the singular Roanoke College poll is not necessarily instructive, “a string of polls tells a story.”

“Nobody is paying attention to a gubernatorial election in March and April. I think the lightning strike event of Tuesday and Thursday in Loudon and Arlington, respectively, is the point where people begin to clue in,” Hurtt told the Caller.

Sears also highlighted the significant increase in fundraising for her campaign and suggested her willingness to take a public stance on key ideological issues sets her apart from Spanberger and entices donors and voters to stand with her. (RELATED: Pollster Matt Towery Shares What Virginia GOP Gubernatorial Nominee Needs To Win Race)

“People want to donate to people who they believe in and they see something, I think, in me that says I am going to do the right thing. I am going to ensure that the policies that we’ve already begun will continue,” Sears said.

Virginia Lt. Gov. @WinsomeSears spoke at the Arlington County Public School board meeting on August 21, and refuted much of the lie that APS’s anything-goes bathroom policy harms no one (girls don’t seem to count). Thank you, Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears. https://t.co/etaznZcKQH pic.twitter.com/RT6YN8X6Qd

— Advocates Protecting Children (@AdvocatesPC) August 22, 2025

“I’ve raised in this last quarter $6 million,” Sears said. “I have raised more money in the second quarter of the campaign than any Republican ever has, including my wonderful Governor Youngkin — and he will tell you that. People like what we’ve done and they want it to continue.”

Hurtt similarly said that the Arlington GOP’s August fundraising effort is shaping up to be their strongest yet, calling it the single best fundraising month “probably in a generation.”

The Caller contacted the DOJ and the DOE to confirm whether a referral had been made for the five Northern Virginia counties for Title IX violations, but did not receive a response in time for publication.