As an effort to end a war, the effort to negotiate with Iran already appears to have as little value as negotiations did before it began. As an effort to delay escalation until appropriate assets arrive in the theater, the five-day delay on Donald Trump’s ultimatum on Hormuz traffic looks valuable indeed.
Through indirect channels, the US has sent the Iranian regime a 15-point plan to end the current conflict. The Wall Street Journal summarizes it as essentially the US position before the war, along with a demand to allow traffic to resume unmolested through the Strait of Hormuz. That means no enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, and an end to ballistic missile programs:
The U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, officials said, which centers largely around previous Trump administration demands of Tehran. The document, sent through intermediaries, calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and end any enrichment on Iranian soil, suspend its ballistic-missile work, curb support for proxies and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the officials.
In return, Iran would have nuclear-related sanctions lifted, the officials said, and the U.S. would assist—while monitoring—the country’s civilian nuclear program. The plan broadly reflects the U.S. proposal discussed with Iran before the war started Feb. 28, when President Trump accused Tehran of not negotiating in good faith. Iran’s new, harder-line leadership says it now has higher demands of Washington, such as seeking reparations for weeks of attacks.
Trump told reporters that Iran wanted to cut a deal and that they had shown signs of compromise. According to Trump, the regime had already agreed to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, although they had previously and repeatedly lied about pursuing them at all. Trump also claimed that Iran had shown good-faith intent by offering the US a “very significant prize,” something related to traffic through the Strait:
In response, a spokesman for Iran’s military scoffed at the notion of talks at all. He claimed that the US was “negotiating with itself” to find an excuse to end a war we are losing:
The spokesman for Iran’s armed forces delivered a defiant message, suggesting the U.S. was negotiating with itself to get out of a “strategic defeat.” In comments relayed by state news agency IRNA, Ebrahim Zolfaghari scoffed at President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. and Iran have been carrying on productive discussions to end the war. “Someone like us will never get along with someone like you. Not now, not ever,” he said.
Addressing Americans, he said oil prices won’t go back to where they were “until you understand that stability in the region is guaranteed” by Iran’s army and “the thought of acting against the Iranian nation is completely wiped from your filthy minds.” He said, “Have your internal conflicts reached the point of you negotiating with yourselves?”
Zolfaghari may not be in the command loop these days, however. Iran has already responded with its own demands, and the regime also appears to insist on its pre-war positions – with one interesting omission:
Iran recently presented the US with a list of demands it expects the Trump administration to honor if it wishes to proceed with ceasefire negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, almost a month into the war that began with US and Israeli strikes against Iranian regime targets on February 28.
Among those demands, the report said, the Islamic Republic was seeking economic control over the Strait of Hormuz, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the continued ability to developing its ballistic missile program without any limitations.
Other purported conditions, including the dismantling of US army bases in the region and financial compensation for war damages, have been previously reported.
At least thus far, the Iranian response appears to have conceded their nuclear-weapons programs, at least tacitly. The regime may hope that this single concession will satisfy Trump, although it certainly won’t satisfy Irsael, especially with the condition of yet another unenforced cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah. The Gulf states will hardly endorse a deal that allows Iran to rebuild the missile systems that the IRGC has mainly targeted at them more than at Israel, nor concede Iran’s sovereign claims to control of the Strait.
Iran isn’t really interested in negotiation – at least not yet. They are doubling down on hegemony instead.
How long will that last? That brings us to the question of regime stability, and what the US has planned after the Friday deadline expires. First, Israel’s Channel 14 claims to have received intelligence that the regime is splitting, with the IRGC on one side and the civilian government on the other:
Channel 14 Claims:
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said, “You took all the money, and now your soldiers are suffering because there are no salaries. Give back what you stole.” – per Senior Iran Analyst Dror Balazada
He added: “I don’t trust you to stop the… pic.twitter.com/XWclqhtR9Z
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 25, 2026
He added: “I don’t trust you to stop the Americans at Kharg and Hormuz.”
Balazada notes the comments show Ghalibaf is trying to hold his jihadi coalition together and is pushing for a deal with Trump after repeated US and Israeli strikes on the IRGC.
Ghalibaf is a hardliner with close ties to the IRGC, but the parliament operates under the authority of the mullahs, and the mullahs have gone very silent … silent like the grave. Nepo Babytollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not shown his face since the opening minute of the war, and it has become apparent that the IRGC is using him as a beard for their military junta. The civilian wing of the regime may now be at cross purposes, which is what happens when leadership vacuums get created under stress. The delay on the deadline and the offer to negotiate have the impact of increasing stress on these fractures, if they do exist, and maybe to create them even if they don’t.
The stress of facing another escalation contributes to that too, and the WSJ notes that the Iranian regime remnants are well aware of what may be coming:
Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned Washington that Tehran was “closely monitoring all U.S. movements in the region, especially troop deployments.” Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the Islamic Republic’s remaining top leaders, also said the U.S. shouldn’t test Iran’s “resolve to defend our land.” Ghalibaf has suggested in public statements that Tehran isn’t ready for negotiations.
The Pentagon is preparing to deploy 3,000 of the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support the war, according to two U.S. officials, The Wall Street Journal reported. A decision to put boots on the ground hasn’t been made, officials said.
Last week, U.S. officials also said three warships and thousands of additional Marines were being sent to the region, the second large deployment of Marines in the space of days.
The negotiations are designed for failure, in other words. Iran does have a legitimate chance to capitulate on negotiated terms in this moment, but the White House almost certainly knows that they won’t take it. In the meantime, the Marines will have arrived, as well as the USS Tripoli and its massive amphibious operations capacity. The lights may go out in Tehran, or perhaps just on Kharg Island as a start. And the Iranians, for all their bluster, know now that they can’t really stop the US from taking whichever step we desire after that point.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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