Zelensky: Okay, Let’s Make a Deal And Sorry About Last Week; UPDATE: Trump to Announce Tonight

Regrets. Volodymyr Zelensky has a few. And not too few to mention. After a couple of days of using the My Way playbook, Zelensky has offered Donald Trump an olive branch — and an offer to deal more rationally to secure an end to the three-year stalemate. 

And it was a very public olive branch, as David noted in an update to his earlier post:

I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace.

None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 4, 2025

Why so public? Why not just communicate this via diplomatic channels? First, Trump made it very clear that Zelensky would have to apologize publicly to him for the public breach of protocol at the White House last week. And not just for that, but also for Zelensky’s attempt to publicly rally other Western leaders against Trump after the embarrassing spectacle. 

Zelensky succeeded at that, but has since realized that it didn’t mean much without American aid and support. Reportedly Keir Starmer tried to gently nudge Zelensky on that point. The UK and other European nations might be willing to up their contributions to Ukrainian security, but the US provides most of the logistical support for NATO. Without the US, it would get difficult to sustain increased levels of support, and that’s even if the EU nations could actually follow through on those pledges. Increasing aid to Ukraine is not exactly a popular position in Europe at the moment, at least outside the progressive ruling clique.

Zelensky has belatedly realized that he misread the situation. He didn’t quite apologize in his statement this morning, but he came pretty close:

We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.

Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.

Is that good enough? Lindsey Graham, one of Ukraine’s biggest backers, seems to think so. Graham last week had urged Trump to cut off aid after the Oval Office debacle, which Trump promptly did. Now Graham sees “better days ahead” after Zelensky’s statement:

Zelensky didn’t quite apologize, as Graham urged him to do. He instead called it “regrettable that it happened this way.”

But Graham seems happy with this new statement. pic.twitter.com/x0XINXdcdD

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) March 4, 2025

Zelensky also pledged to actually sign the deal the next time he gets an opportunity:

Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.

Why now? Perhaps Zelensky took a look at how Trump sees security partnerships in the blockbuster deal with Taiwan over chip manufacturing and finally got some insight into Trump’s thinking. That deal makes clear that the US has solid interests in Taiwan that it will defend without escalating tensions with China through military escalation. Beijing understands what that deal means, but they also understand the subtlety of the approach. It allows Beijing to forego a response, especially an escalatory response, while getting the sotto voce message of “hands off.”

That’s exactly what the mineral-rights deal did for Ukraine as well. Vladimir Putin wouldn’t have to be told that the US and EU will defend their economic investment in Ukraine, and it wouldn’t rub his nose in it either. That approach at least allows for a diplomatic effort to end the war, and the deal itself would bring fresh revenues to Ukraine to rebuild its infrastructure and economy after three years of destruction. Section 5 of the agreement makes it very clear that mineral-rights revenues will be dedicated to those rebuilding efforts, not seized by the US for aid repayment:

The Fund’s investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine intend that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the Fund Agreement.

Zelensky rejected diplomacy as a solution during the Oval Office debacle, but what other alternative is there? Ukraine can’t eject Russia from the positions it seized in 2014; they have spent three years, countless lives, and almost unlimited aid and materiel to achieve a stalemate in place. Russia is in the same position, but with a larger economy and population that can sustain pressure indefinitely. Short of World War III, there’s no military solution for complete justice, and World War III would turn Ukraine into a wasteland for decades — and maybe longer, given the relatively ancient RBMK nuclear reactors at risk. 

This deal gives the best off-ramp available to military conflict. It might not work, but it’s worth at least trying. It certainly beats the stalemate at the moment and the world war that Zelensky wants by sending NATO troops into Russian lines. And now that Zelensky understands that the US will not participate in that fantasy, Zelensky can perhaps grasp an opportunity for a rational exit from war as an American partner rather than antagonist. 

Update: I guess it was enough. Assuming, of course, that someone doesn’t screw it up this time too:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and Ukraine plan to sign the much-debated minerals deal following a disastrous Oval Office meeting Friday in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was dismissed from the building, four people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump has told his advisers that he wants to announce the agreement in his address to Congress Tuesday evening, three of the sources said, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.

Prediction: it gets announced tonight either way.