Study: Armed Citizens Stop Far More Active Shooters Than FBI Reports

New research from the Crime Prevention Research Center finds armed citizens stopped 36.6% of identified active-shooter incidents from 2014 to 2025, far above the 3.9% rate reflected in FBI statistics.

Snapshot

The CPRC, led by Dr. John Lott, identified 615 active-shooter attacks during the period and credits armed civilians with stopping 225 of them, compared with just 16 of the FBI's 408 identified incidents. The organization attributes the gap to incidents the FBI omitted entirely and cases where armed civilians were misclassified as security personnel or credited to responding police instead.

Key points

• The numbers diverge sharply: FBI data credits civilians with stopping 3.9% of incidents, while CPRC research puts the figure at 36.6%, rising to 42.5% over the most recent five years.
• Misclassification matters: CPRC points to cases like the 2019 White Settlement, Texas church shooting and the 2025 CrossPointe Community Church attack in Wayne, Michigan, where armed volunteer congregants were labeled "security personnel" rather than ordinary citizens.
• Carry locations change the math: In places where citizens could legally carry firearms, CPRC found a 52.9% intervention rate, climbing to 56.3% in the most recent five years.
• Greenwood Mall as case study: CPRC cites the 2022 Greenwood Park Mall attack, where a legally armed 22-year-old bystander engaged the shooter 15 seconds after the attack began, as an example of intervention being treated as an exception rather than a pattern.

Quick take

For concealed carriers, this is less about scoring a debate and more about reinforcing what a carry mindset already assumes: a lawfully carried firearm can be the difference-maker when seconds count. Dr. Lott argues the discrepancy reflects data problems, not isolated error, and that previously flagged omissions have gone uncorrected. AmmoLand's Duncan Johnson frames the stakes as accuracy in a debate that directly touches concealed carry and gun-free zone policy.

Read the full story: ammoland.com