Reporter’s Notebook: Greene’s exit sets off new House math headache for GOP majority

It’s about the math.

And the math in the House of Representatives got much more interesting Friday night when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., announced she would resign in January.

The current breakdown in the House is 219-213 in favor of Republicans with three vacancies: Former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., retired. The late Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, died. Former Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., resigned late last week after voters elected her governor of New Jersey. The House finally swore in Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., six weeks after she prevailed in her special election in September to succeed her late father. Late Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., died earlier this year.

The six-seat margin means that the GOP can only lose two votes on the floor and still pass a bill without help from the Democrats.

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But the math in the coming weeks and months quickly gets dicey for the GOP.

Greene does not step aside until Jan. 5. So let’s run through the numbers and permutations which could evolve over the next few months.

There’s a special election in Tennessee to succeed former House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green on Dec. 2. President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points last fall. Green bested his opponent – former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, by 21 points. So Republicans are expected to hold this seat.

But there is something important to know about special elections: they’re special. They sometimes produce weird results because the usual voting electorate doesn’t show up. Plus, surges by one party or the other in a special election held in either a deeply blue or ruby red district sometimes signals a boost for the party. Strong performances or even upsets sometimes portend what’s ahead in the next election. They also signal a referendum on the President.

For instance, in 2017, Democrats were competitive in four GOP seats of House members who departed to join the Trump administration. But even though the Democrats ran well, they still failed to flip any of those seats. Former Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kan., stepped down to become CIA Director. Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan., then won that seat by a mere six points. Current Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., resigned to become Interior Secretary. Former Rep. and current Gov. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., won – but only by five points and less than 50 percent of the vote. Former Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., resigned to become Health and Human Services Secretary. Former Rep. Karen Handel, R-Ga., won by only three points over current Sen. Jon Ossoff, R-Ga. Former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., left his House seat to become Budget Director and later White House Chief of Staff. Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., succeeded Mulvaney. But Norman won by only three percentage points.

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Even though Democrats failed to flip any of those seats, they made the GOP sweat and put up strong showings. Some analysts viewed the Democrats’ performances in those contests as a sign of things to come in the 2018 midterms and President Trump’s weakness.

Democrats then reclaimed control of the House in the 2018 midterms and won 40 seats.

Republican Matt Van Epps faces Democrat Aftyn Behn next week in the special election to succeed Green in Tennessee. Democrats are pouring money into that contest hoping they can flip the seat.

If they do, the GOP majority dwindles to 219-214. But if Van Epps prevails, the GOP gets some space with a 220-213 majority.

But that only lasts until Greene steps down in January. So the majority would dwindle to 219-213.

Remember that you cannot appoint someone to the House. So you have to wait for special elections. The Georgia special election to succeed Greene wouldn’t happen until March.

But there’s lots to happen before then.

There is a special election runoff to replace Democrat Sylvester Turner on Jan. 31. Democrats will hold that seat with two of their own in the runoff. But government funding expires on Jan. 30. One wonders if House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might hold off swearing-in a prospective Democratic successor to Turner if the House is out for similar reasons as to why the Speaker refrained from swearing-in Adelita Grijalva.

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So, presuming Van Epps wins, and with Greene gone and either Democrats Amanda Edwards or Christian Menefee winning the Turner seat in Texas, the GOP majority dips to 219-214. It’s a margin of five. But again, Republicans can only lose two votes and not need help from the other side.

Now we’re back to a special election in March for Greene’s seat. Again, Democrats will try to make that competitive. But for the sake of argument, let’s say the GOP wins. The Republican majority climbs to 220-214.

So at this stage, we are down to only one vacancy in the House – presuming no one else quits or, God forbid, dies. The special election to succeed Sherrill will come in April. Again, Democrats should hold that seat. But special elections are just that: special. Republicans will certainly try to flip that seat. But if Democrats hold on and the House is at full strength, the GOP majority will sit at 220-215.

This scenario presumes both parties win everything they’re supposed to win.

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But what happens if Democrats were to flip the open seats in Tennessee and Georgia and win the special elections in Texas and New Jersey? In that scenario, you’re looking at a 218-217 Republican majority next spring.

Again, we’re positing that no one dies or retires mid-term.

The House is not a very pleasant place to be right now. That’s why some lawmakers may look for the exits early.

And, there’s an old saying that “death will come. And it’s always out of season.”

Sylvester Turner was a freshman Democrat and had been a Member of the House for barely two months. He attended President Trump’s State of the Union speech in early March. Turner died overnight.

Grijalva had suffered from cancer for years. He died eight days after Turner. By spring, late Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., died from cancer – just months after becoming the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee.

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The late Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., died last year after bouts with various health issues. Rep. LaMonica McIver, D-N.J., succeeded him in the fall.

The Senate majority has flipped a couple of times in the middle of Congress. The House majority has never switched in the middle of Congress. That may not be the case now. But the tenuous hold on power for the GOP has been the story of the House since the 2022 midterms. It’s one of the tightest majorities in history. And it wouldn’t take much to shift power.