Republicans cling to 218-213 House majority with special elections looming

Republicans are clinging to a razor-thin 218-213 House majority.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson shouldn’t expect many reinforcements anytime soon.

This month’s shocking early House retirement of MAGA firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and the unexpected death of Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa of California further shrunk the GOP’s margins in the chamber.

And that has House GOP leaders keeping a tight leash on the party’s rank and file members.

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“They’d better be here,” Johnson recently said of his members. “I told everybody, and not in jest, I said, no adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here.”

And House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office confirmed it is advising members that “outside of life-and-death circumstances,” they expect Republican lawmakers to be on Capitol Hill.

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There are currently four vacant House districts, which means four special elections to fill the seats. But it’s the Democrats rather than the Republicans who will likely benefit more from the ballot box results in the short run.

Here’s a look at the special elections that are on deck:

Jan. 31

Voters in Texas’ Democrat-dominated 18th Congressional District, which is anchored by downtown Houston and surrounding areas, head to the polls on the last day of January to choose a successor to fill the seat left vacant when Rep. Sylvester Turner died last March.

Democrats Christian Menefee, a former attorney for Houston’s Harris County, and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards are facing off in the special election. They were the top two finishers in a field of 16 candidates that faced off in an initial election in November.

While Texas has redrawn its congressional maps for the 2026 midterms, as part of the high-stakes redistricting battle between President Donald Trump and Republicans versus Democrats, the special election will use the state’s current district lines.

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The winner of the special election will give the Democrats one additional House member, giving Republican leadership further headaches.

Feb. 5

Eleven candidates are running in the Democratic Party primary in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District.

The seat was left vacant after now New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill stepped down after winning November’s gubernatorial election in the Garden State.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face off with Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the only Republican to file for the special election, which will be held on April 16.

The suburban district in northern New Jersey leans to the left, with Sherrill winning re-election in 2024 by 15 points, the same margin she carried the district in November’s gubernatorial showdown.

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But then-Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by just eight points in the 2024 presidential election, giving the GOP some hopes of possibly flipping the seat.

March 10

A whopping 22 candidates, including 17 Republicans, are running in a special election in the 14th Congressional District, in the race to succeed Greene.

According to Georgia state law, all the candidates will run on the same ballot. If no contender tops 50% of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers will take place on April 7.

The district in northwestern Georgia is solidly Republican, with Greene winning re-election in 2024 by nearly 30 points and Trump carrying the district by 37 points.

June 2

Primary Day in California for the 2026 elections will also include a primary for the special election in the state’s 1st Congressional District, in the race to fill LaMalfa’s seat. The general election will be held on Aug. 4.

The district, in northeastern California, is solidly Republican.

Similar to Texas, California is also altering its congressional maps as part of the redistricting wars, but the special election will be held under the current district lines.

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The White House and congressional Republicans criticized the decision by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom to not hold a special election to fill LaMalfa’s seat until August, six months after the late congressman’s death.

But Democrats similarly complained about Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas not scheduling the special election to fill Turner’s seat until eight months after the late lawmaker died.

Fox News’ Elizabeth Elkins contributed to this story.