President Donald Trump risks facing the same pitfalls that plagued former President Joe Biden’s administration and cost Democrats dearly in the 2022 midterms.
The most important issue leading into the 2026 midterms is (and always was) the economy. Presidents can get away with many foreign and domestic policies that are seemingly unpopular with voters as long as the economy is strong.
The war in Iran is already indicating potential strain on the U.S. economy, which is struggling from the abuse it suffered during the Biden administration. Diesel prices spiked to well over $5 per gallon in some areas, like California, amid the U.S. involvement in Iran. Inflation was sitting at 2.4 percent in January, and February job losses pushed unemployment to 4.4 percent. If the Trump administration fails to curb policies that exacerbate supply chain strains and consumer costs, it will be responsible for the sweeping Democratic gains in November.
Does everyone not understand that this meltdown in oil is a huge threat to Trump’s presidency? The anger and shock people will feel if gas hits $5 a gallon (or more) out of nowhere will be stunning. And there will be no one for him to blame.
He has maybe 48 hours to sort it out. https://t.co/SGgVVVf8fU
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) March 9, 2026
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 was 2.4 percent year-over-year, down from 2.7 percent in December 2025. However, the most important metrics to boost consumer confidence and household budgets, such as the food and energy sectors, are still facing ongoing issues. Food inflation persists at 2.9 percent, with staples like sugar and sweets up 5.7 percent, which will be exacerbated by supply chain costs linked to rising diesel prices. (Sign up for Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service forecasts overall food prices to rise 3.1 percent in 2026, with food-at-home up 2.5 percent, prolonging the burden American families were saddled with under Biden.
Diesel spikes create widespread ripple effects. Diesel has risen by almost a dollar since the Iran war started, pushing the national average from $3.77 per gallon to $4.66, according to AAA data.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told Yahoo Finance that while there is typically a “lag,” “higher diesel prices absolutely tend to filter into consumer prices.”
“When diesel rises as quickly as it has recently … it can begin putting noticeable upward pressure on freight costs, shipping rates, and ultimately consumer prices if it persists,” De Haan said.
Higher fuel prices for heavy-duty trucks, agriculture, and industrial equipment lead to fuel surcharges in transportation. These surcharges drive inflation, passing the added cost onto consumers, because diesel-fueled trucks move 83 percent of agricultural products and 92 percent of dairy, vegetables, fruits and nuts, according to a study from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).
Donald Trump’s decision not to refill the stockpile drained by his predecessor Joe Biden has left consumers exposed to an oil price shock following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, analysts have warned. https://t.co/LF9KvaoNGm pic.twitter.com/2IiPQO238X
— Dr.Sam Youssef Ph.D.,M.Sc.,DPT. (@drhossamsamy65) March 6, 2026
Labor market weakness compounds the issue. February payrolls to non-agricultural workers fell by 92,000, below expectations of a 60,000 gain, with unemployment rising to 4.4 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center’s Surveys of Consumers has tracked Americans’ financial well-being and their views on the broader economy since 1946. It has become one of the most watched measures of how everyday Americans feel about the economy.
The main thing people pay attention to is the survey’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which summarizes Americans’ overall mood about money and the economy. Higher numbers mean people feel more optimistic and confident; lower numbers mean they’re worried or pessimistic. The CSI for February was 56.6, indicating that, on average, American households are quite pessimistic about their personal finances, the current economy, and their expectations for the near future. Additionally, the February survey found that about 46 percent of Americans brought up on their own how high prices are hurting their finances. This doesn’t mean consumers are panicking, but it does show the wariness American families feel amid prolonged price burdens.
Historical midterm elections illustrate how economic woes devastate the president’s party. Since World War II, the party in the White House has almost always lost House and Senate seats in midterm elections. Poor economies magnify these losses.
Iran has CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a global economic shock.
~20% of the world’s oil — over 20 million barrels per day — flows through that corridor.
Now?
– Oil could rip toward $120–$130
– U.S. inflation could surge back near 5%
– Every $10 oil spike adds ~0.2% to… pic.twitter.com/vN6YQREmzR— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) February 28, 2026
The 1994 midterms saw Republicans gain 52 House seats under former President Bill Clinton, with unemployment going from 6.1 percent in the summer to 5.6 by December and lingering inflation concerns. In 2006, under former President George W. Bush, rising gas prices helped Democrats gain 30 House seats and six Senate seats. During the 2010 midterm elections, unemployment averaged 9.6 percent under former President Barack Obama, leading Democrats to lose 63 House seats and six Senate seats. In 2022, the consumer price index rising 9.1 percent under former President Joe Biden helped Republicans gain nine House seats.
At this point, it’s undeniable that midterms serve as economic referendums, and polls indicate that economic discontent could doom the GOP’s chances in 2026. Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot with a 5.4 point lead over Republicans, according to political forecaster Nate Silver.
Even more worrisome for Republicans is how quickly GOP voters’ views on the economy have shifted since Trump came into office. The Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for Republican voters has declined for both current and future economic conditions. After June 2025’s peak, sentiment among Republicans has fallen more quickly than among Democrats, Morning Consult reported.
The biggest mistake Republicans and the Trump administration could make would be to ignore the warning signs. Ignoring voters’ fears and discontent about the economy and failing to do anything to alleviate the burden could result in historic GOP losses in the midterms.
During Biden’s term, overall prices were 21.5 percent higher than in 2020, household savings plummeted from $2.3 trillion to under $400 billion, and mortgage rates doubled, making homeownership a distant dream for many. These burdens fueled voter discontent, contributing to Republican gains in the 2022 midterms, in which the GOP flipped the House by nine seats and the Senate by one. Not just that, but they were the driving force behind Trump’s historic 2024 presidential win.
Trump now risks echoing these failures with the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which has already disrupted oil flows, raising crude and diesel prices. Sustained conflict in Iran will prolong these burdens, eroding consumer sentiment, which is already alarmingly low, and turning the economy into a midterm liability. (RELATED: Polls Show Neither Party Fully Owns The Only Midterm Issue That Matters)
The economy was already a heavy load for Americans to bear before the Iran war, and Americans are right to be worried about their economic future. The problem Trump faces is that the economy is the most important issue in the election. Because Republicans hold both the House and the Senate and the presidency, Democrats barely have to lift a finger to shift voter support. All any Democratic campaign needs to do is point to the numbers, and voter sentiment will do the rest.
The GOP cannot make the mistake of letting foreign entanglements undermine domestic prosperity. History shows economic pain overrides party loyalty in midterms. Stop focusing abroad. The home front needs your attention.
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