Will 2032 Be a Cliff Democrats Can’t Avoid?

There’s a Thomas Edsall column up today which suggests that while Democrats have reason to be optimistic about this year’s election, in just a few more years they may be doomed. It’s worth noting up front that Edsall, while a Democrat himself, frequently seems to be looking for the dark cloud attached to every silver lining. He is the doomiest Democrat at the New York Times almost without fail. Still, he’s also pretty interesting.

Democrats are favored to win the House and have a shot at taking control of the Senate in the midterm elections later this year…

But in 2030, the Democrats’ glory days turn ugly as the party’s fortunes face the threat of a downward spiral.

The problem, as we’ve discussed before, is the upcoming 2030 Census. Democrats can run blue states into the ground for decades but eventually some number of people decide they’ve had enough and move their families to a state with lower taxes, fewer homeless people and better job creation. And over time, those decision do change the political landscape.

…the 2030 census will inflict two brutal body blows to the Democratic Party by putting the party in a significantly worse position in the contest to control the House and the presidential battle to win 270 votes in the Electoral College.

According to current estimates based on population trends, Republican states will gain and Democratic states will lose six to 12 House seats and, with them, the same number of Electoral College votes…

Not only does this make it much harder to retain or win control of the House, it also means that a Democratic presidential candidate in 2032 could sweep the Midwest battleground states and still lose the election.

Of course there’s nothing, in theory, that limits Democrats to certain states. They could in fact become competitive in places like Florida or Texas if they were willing to tailor their message to the more conservative people that live in those places. But, as Edsall has previously argued, most Democrats seem unwilling to do that. 

NBC News polling data provided to The Times by Bill McInturff and Gordon Pryre of Public Opinion Strategies shows how high the hurdle is. Combining the results of all the surveys NBC and CNBC conducted in 2025 reveals that voters in the red states Trump carried easily view him positively, 51 percent to 42 percent, or a nine-point margin. The voters of those states have a 46 percent to 40 percent “favorable” rating for the Republican Party, a six-point difference.

Democrats, in contrast, are pariahs: 22 percent positive, 60 percent negative, for a net 38 points adverse.

You can’t win elections when most voters in a given state are convinced your entire party is nutty as a fruitcake. But as Edsall admits a few paragraphs later, the underlying problem isn’t the candidates it’s the party’s base, which has become much more liberal over time.

In 1994, Gallup found that moderates were a solid 48 percent plurality of Democratic voters while liberals and conservatives each made up a quarter. By 2025, liberals were a decisive majority at 59 percent as moderates fell to 32 percent and conservatives shrank to 8 percent.

Why can’t Democrats back away from positions that are clearly hurting them? Because most of their voters really believe “trans women are women” and refuse to accept that trans people shouldn’t compete in sports with actual women. And so, when Gavin Newsom suggests conservatives have a point, there is a big backlash within the party. He gets attacked for refusing to toe the line. That’s why very few Dems have followed his example. They don’t want to moderate to succeed. They want to steamroller the opposition with their moral certitude. That’s the only type of win they can accept.

If you have any doubt about what happens to those who buck the orthodoxy, try reading the comments.

What this indicates is not Edsall’s prescription for Democratic moderation but its opposite. Democrats need to revolutionize the party and the direction of our country by ejecting the corporate surrender Dems and electing fighters who will not under any circumstances cower in the face of this Maga take-down of our country. If Democrats adhere to economic fairness and opportunity for regular working people, affordable healthcare, and fundamental American, Constitutional rights, they will speak to the deep disgust of Americans of all political persuasions who see in the Trump regime the opposite of what America is supposed to be about.

That’s just one example, but nearly all of the top posts offer a similar outlook. They are all arguing with Edsall that moving to the center will help. They are convinced they just need to keep bashing Trump and it will all work out.

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