Follow the Money: Dems’ Real Maine Kampf Awaits

Will Der Oysterführer withdraw from the Maine ballot? Will Herr Totenkopf stick around and force Dems to choose between power and humiliation? David wrote about that tension earlier today, but the truth is that Democrats’ hopes in Maine are almost certainly over – and this episode will cost them in more ways than one.

Graham Platner will apparently wait for his Survey Monkey results before formally withdrawing from the race on Monday. Assuming he follows through on his pledge – would a rapey Kik creeper with a Nazi tattoo lie? – Democrats can then choose another nominee to the US Senate. Almost exactly two years ago to the day, Democrats pulled the same maneuver in the presidential race, swapping out Joe Biden after he won all of the primaries with Kamala Harris after the cover-up of Biden’s senility fell apart on a CNN stage.  

This time, the situation is very different, as Open Secrets’ Joedy McCreary points out. Whoever gets the nod will not get the money, and no one else has any at the moment:

Before his populist campaign unraveled, the 41-year-old combat veteran and oysterman raised $16.3 million through May 20 and held nearly $2.2 million in cash on hand, according to filings his campaign submitted to the Federal Election Commission before the June 9 primary. While that cash total falls well short of the $10 million banked by Republican incumbent Susan Collins – who in 2020 kept her seat even though Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon outraised her by more than $45 million – it nevertheless dwarfs every potential Platner successor.

State party officials said they will hold a nominating convention to select a new nominee, with details on the timeline and mechanics to be announced later. Under state law, Platner faced a July 13 deadline to withdraw, and the party has until July 27 to replace him. The scramble has set off a whirlwind of political drama that University of Maine political scientist Mark Brewer says obscures a deeper issue.

“Everybody’s focusing on who the replacement’s going to be, but … even beyond that, no one’s paying attention to the money yet,” Brewer told OpenSecrets.

Does everyone remember the big reason that the DNC anointed Harris so quickly in the aftermath of Biden’s withdrawal? Hint: It was not her sparkling wit or track record of electoral success. It was the campaign’s money, which only she could access as a candidate, being on the same campaign and ticket. The Biden-Harris 2024 campaign had raised well over a billion dollars that only Harris could unlock. Any other presidential nominee would have had to start from scratch with only 107 days to go to Election Day against Donald Trump. 

The stakes are lower here, but the problem is the same. Platner spent most of what he raised already, which was earmarked for the primary. The FEC allows candidates who raise general-election funds but don’t get the nomination to redistribute the money within 60 days, but usually candidates use remaining funds to pay bills and staffers. They can transfer some funds to other candidates, but McCreary notes that federal law limits those transfers to just $2,000. 

A few names have already emerged as replacements for Der Oysterführer, all of whom ran for other offices this cycle and still have active campaigns. However, as McCreary also points out, their cash on hand is useless for a Senate race. Campaign finance regulations also bar conversion of funds raised for state and local offices to campaigns for federal office. The only potential candidate who could get around that would be Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who ran against Susan Collins in 2014 and whose campaign is still active. However, she only has $18,000 in the campaign account, according to FEC records, which isn’t going to do much against Collins’ $10 million in the bank.

There is one more option, but Democrats aren’t going to like it:

Yet a week-old Supreme Court decision provides a road map to a possible workaround: In National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC, the court struck down limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates. Because the law allows candidates – even those who have withdrawn – to transfer unlimited amounts to any national, state or local party committee, it is theoretically possible that Platner could send what’s left of his cash to a Democratic Party entity, which could then coordinate a spending strategy with the chosen candidate – whoever it winds up being.

Aaaaaaaand this is where Platner’s demands to control the choice of nominee actually grow teeth. Platner can use the money as leverage to hand-pick his successor, or at least demand some level of control of the process. The Maine Democrat Party, on the other hand, wants to keep its next nominee/anointee as free of Herr Totenkopf’s fingerprints as possible, for obvious reasons. The DNC and the DSCC could help accomplish that, but Platner all but declared war on all three Democrat Party entities in his presumed valediction on Wednesday night. The Supreme Court ruling in NRSC v. FEC applies only to political parties, not to independent PACs, so Platner can’t donate to outside orgs. He could choose to just hang onto the cash and use it to seed later House and Senate campaigns, $2000 at a time, rather than allow the “establishment” he blames for his current woes to control it. 

How much money are we talking about? McCreary’s review of Platner’s campaign disclosures shows $587,000 explicitly earmarked for the general election from larger donors, but also notes that smaller donations didn’t get categorized. The real number is somewhere between that figure and the $2.2 million Platner had left on hand, and likely closer to the latter number as the primary turned into a rout in late April. That’s a big chunk of money to leave on the table, especially against Collins. Democrats will want to recover it, and to do so, they will have to play ball with Platner, even if he does withdraw on Monday. 

Not that it will help. Taking the money creates another issue for Democrats: Platner’s stain will be all over the cash and will transfer to any candidate who benefits from it. Republicans will have a field day reminding Maine voters that the money paying for Candidate X originally came from Candidate SS, the rapey dude with the Nazi tattoo and creepy Kik account that Democrats all adored until a hot second ago. 

Follow the money will be the watchphrase in Maine between Labor Day and Election Day. Democrats’ Maine Kampf may only just be beginning. 

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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