‘Nobody’s Playing Games’: Vance On Way to Islamabad As Iranians ‘Posture’

I wouldn’t say nobody. That’s the problem. One side keeps playing games while the other side keeps demonstrating its seriousness. 

That pattern will likely repeat itself today in Islamabad, but the US plans to let it unfold in the open so no one will get confused. Donald Trump has sent J.D. Vance again to lead the negotiations with Iran to end the war on American terms. It’s not clear yet whether Vance, Steven Witkoff, and Jared Kushner will see anyone across the table, but the US will show up as the ceasefire deadline approaches:

Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached.

“We’re supposed to have the talks,” Trump said in a brief interview, brushing aside doubts about whether negotiations would fall apart. “So I would assume at this point nobody’s playing games.” …

But the president declined to spell out what consequences Tehran could face if it refuses to comply or if talks collapse — particularly as the ceasefire deadline looms.

“Well, I don’t want to get into that with you,” he said when asked whether the US would escalate measures, such as seizing additional ships tied to Iran. “You can imagine. It wouldn’t be pretty.”

Asked whether the US knows who is leading Iran, Trump said: “We have pretty good ideas, and we think we’re dealing with the right people.”

Duane wrote more about Iran’s conundrum this morning. The assumption that no one’s playing games may be little more than wishful thinking, though, even with Iran’s regime at an existential brink. The question is less about who’s in charge and more about whether anyone’s really in charge in Tehran. The IRGC hardliners control their military and terror operations, while the civilian government controls the foreign policy apparatus. That creates the problem seen this weekend, when the diplomats promise something that the IRGC refuses to deliver. The IRGC and the shreds of its maritime assets opened fire on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the ceasefire signed by the regime’s diplomats, and the US escalated by seizing an IRGC tanker, its crew, and its assets. 

Even now, the regime still appears to be playing games. They have claimed to be snubbing Islamabad II, leaving the Pakistanis to claim game-playing as the fallback excuse:

After Iran claimed it had refused to attend a second round of peace talks on Sunday, Tehran is now “willing for a second round” of negotiations — and its bluster so far is mere posturing for the best deal possible, Pakistani sources exclusively told The Post on Monday.

Iran on Sunday had publicly said it would not participate in the next round of US-brokered talks in Pakistan, accusing Washington of making “excessive demands,” shifting positions and continuing a naval blockade it views as a violation of the fragile cease-fire, according to prior reporting.

“Current hard stance is posturing to extract maximum advantage when second round happens,” the person said, citing takeaways from discussions with the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman. However, Iran still had not yet decided whether it would attend as of Monday afternoon local time, the source said.

Sounds like a lot of game-playing to me. It’s not even clear yet whether Vance and his team have actually departed for Islamabad. The Iranians still have not committed to coming at all. And that may be an attempt to play the US for an extension on a ceasefire that has featured more fire than ceasing:

The reality is that even the furious Iranian insistence that it hasn’t decided whether to come is part of the negotiations, trying to put the American side on the back foot.

Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy.

All of this makes it very hard for the two sides to reach a deal within days. The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told me over the weekend that the ceasefire deadline will have to be extended.

At this time, Pakistan is attempting to get Trump to lift the blockade on Iran as a concession for talks. After this weekend’s attacks on commercial shipping, though, Trump is unlikely to trust the IRGC enough to restore their income stream just to get circle-jerked again in Islamabad. Trump holds all the cards and does not need an offramp nearly as much as the Iranians do – whether the IRGC realizes it or not. 

So why are they continuing this circle-jerk game? The Iranians may be hoping to stall long enough for Trump to comply with the War Powers Act, when they may think that Congress will force Trump to withdraw. The situation will become more complicated for Trump after the first 60-day period expires and he has to report back on the progress, and at least hypothetically, seek authorization for a continuation of the war. That still leaves a 30-day withdrawal period even under the WPA’s terms, during which kinetic military operations can continue. Not a single president has acknowledged the WPA as a limit on their authority to conduct extended military operations; Barack Obama didn’t even bother to follow it for his months-long campaign against Moammar Qaddafi in 2011. Trump and his team will likely defy Congress and/or dodge the deadline by declaring the ceasefire as the end of one military action, and the resumption of kinetic operations the start of a new 60-day period. The participation in Islamabad II is likely an effort to justify the action by demonstrating that diplomacy won’t work. 

Stay tuned for the next moves on the game board. The talks in Islamabad may end up every bit as fictional as the IRGC junta’s divine grant of authority. 

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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