Aaron Judge is once again on pace to make history, threaten his own AL single-season home run record

Sometimes, given the length of the Major League Baseball season, it’s easy to miss or take for granted how good certain players are. 

One of those is New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge. Judge is understated, rarely “flashy,” and has been the best hitter in baseball for so long that it feels boring or predictable to say so. 

But that shouldn’t take away from what he’s done in his career, and what he continues to do through the early portion of the 2026 regular season. Once again, Judge is on pace to make history, just a few years after breaking the American League single-season home run record. 

First, some context for how good Judge is as a hitter. From 2021-2025, Judge has hit 250 home runs with 540 runs batted in, 513 runs scored, and incredibly, 48 stolen bases. That’s despite missing 56 games in 2023 with an injury suffered after running into a wall at Dodger Stadium. Collectively, he’s hit .306/.426/.649, a 1.075 OPS. He’s averaged 55 home runs per season. And again, that includes 2023 where he hit 37 in 106 games.

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Using more advanced statistics, like weighted on-base average, a statistic that gives more credit for outcomes like home runs, he leads baseball by a wide, wide margin. Judge’s wOBA from 2021-2025 is .443. Shohei Ohtani, in second place, has a .409 wOBA. For context, not one of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr., or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are over .388 in that time frame. 

By weighted runs created plus, a comprehensive offensive league- and park-adjusted statistic where 100 is league average, Judge dominates there too. His cumulative wRC+ from 2021-2025 is a whopping 193, meaning he’s been 93% better than a league-average hitter. Ohtani is once again second at 165. Juan Soto, the highest-paid player in baseball, is 160. 

For his entire career thus far, Judge’s wRC+ is 178, the third highest in MLB history behind Babe Ruth and Ted Williams. And yes, even ahead of Barry Bonds. That’s pretty darn good company. And in 2026, even after turning 34, he’s somehow at it again.

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In 2022, Judge hit 62 home runs, setting a new AL single-season record. In 2026, he’s already hit 15 through 40 team games. Over a 162-game season, that puts him on pace to hit … 61 homers.

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The only two players to hit 60 or more homers multiple times in a career are Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, both of whom were linked to performance-enhancing drugs. Even the great Babe Ruth hit 60 or more just once. Should Judge reach that figure this year, he’d become the first player, ever, to hit 60 home runs in more than one season without a PED association.

There’s a long way to go, and injuries or a slump could derail the pursuit. But what we’re seeing with Judge is not a typical “best hitter in baseball” run. He’s making a case to be one of the best two or three hitters in baseball history. And he’s doing it in an era where pitching is better than it’s ever been.

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The average fastball velocity in MLB this year is up to 94.6 mph. When the league moved into the Statcast era of pitch tracking, average fastball velocity was 93.1 mph. Pitchers are throwing harder than they ever have, and thanks to new measurements and understanding of pitch shapes, spin rates, and tunneling effects, it’s harder to hit than it’s ever been. Judge is still putting up historically good numbers. 

It’s easy to be numb to just how good Aaron Judge is. Particularly with the regional aspect of baseball fandom, if you only see him play a handful of times per year. But he’s on track to make even more history in 2026, and somehow, despite playing for the Yankees, he remains wildly underappreciated.