An analysis of the states that have redrawn congressional districts for partisan advantage found that Republicans are winning the battle.
CBS News elections analyst Anthony Salvanto looked at the midterm elections map with Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik on Tuesday.
‘My best guess … is a Republican gain of seven seats, but there’s a range on that. It could be a little lower, it could be a lot higher than that.’
Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Missouri have redistricted in favor of Republicans and garnered the party between 10 and 16 extra seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Democrats have only been able to gain seats in California and Utah, for a possible gain between four and six seats, according to the analysis.
Overall, Republicans could have as many as 12 extra seats, while Democrats could only whittle down the advantage to four for the Republicans if everything went their way.
In addition, there are three states where efforts are pending and Republicans could pick up more seats. Those are Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina.
“The argument sort of goes back and forth. Is it maybe nine seats? Is it maybe six seats when this all nets out?” Salvanto said.
According to their analysis, there are only about 16 actual toss-up seats to be determined, and Republicans have an estimated 211 to 208 seat advantage. Whichever party gets to 218 seats will determine control of the House.
“Obviously we got to have the election first to determine what the actual effect of the redistricting was,” Kondik responded. “My best guess … is a Republican gain of seven seats, but there’s a range on that. It could be a little lower, it could be a lot higher than that.”
Salvanto pointed out one possible weakness for Republicans were Hispanics in Texas districts who had moved to the Republican Party in 2024 but may not show up in as significant numbers for the midterms.
RELATED: Utah Supreme Court justice abruptly RESIGNS after accusation involving redistricting attorney
“Just because you change a map to benefit yourself, it’s not necessarily gonna do that,” Kondik added.
“I would specifically look at the Republican redraws because 2026 is gonna stress test those maps in a way that they won’t necessarily be tested for Democrats because this is probably gonna be a Democratic-leaning year.”
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