Recent polling generally indicates that congressional Democrats are poised to come out on top in the midterm election. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is not convinced, however — especially considering pollsters’ track record.
“We’ve had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa,” Enten told “CNN News Central” talking head John Berman on Wednesday.
‘There’s a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate.’
A Marist Poll published on Wednesday showed U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 51%-44% in Michigan. The latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47%-44% in Ohio. According to a Fox News survey conducted from Sept. 24-28, Democrat Josh Turek has a two-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.
“Fool me once, shame on you,” continued Enten. “Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question: Could it happen again?”
Enten highlighted how the GOP outperformed September 2024 polls concerning Senate races and the White House by 9 percentage points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan. That same September, national polls suggested that Kamala Harris would win a presidential election that she ultimately lost in a landslide.
“I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024,” said Enten. “So you look at this, and you go, ‘You know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here because we’ve seen this dance before’ — and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counted.”
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Berman insinuated that Trump not being on the ballot this time around might be a factor, but Enten noted that the lesson from the 2018 election — Trump’s first midterm election — is that “it’s the same exact story.”
“The GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by 6 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 8 points in Michigan,” said Enten. “The bottom line is this: Over the last few [election] cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024 — Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least 5 points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead.”
The data analyst suggested further that if Republicans outperform their Midwest polls as they did in 2018 and 2024, then even with Democrats carrying states such as Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, there could end up being a 50/50 split in the U.S. Senate with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaker.
“So if history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there’s a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate, even if Democrats win in places they don’t historically win in, like Texas,” said Enten.
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