Which head coach’s seat is hotter heading into 2026 season: Shane Beamer or Mike Norvell?

With the college football season still a few months away, many fans are looking for anything to latch onto in the offseason.

Narratives start to pop up and talking points get put under a microscope, but one of the most popular topics of conversation is the “hot seat” one.

There are several coaches who should sleep with one eye open heading into the 2026 season, but the two that seem to be the most talked about in this regard are South Carolina’s Shane Beamer and Florida State’s Mike Norvell.

Many college football talking heads have put Beamer and Norvell at the top of their hot seat rankings, including Brooks Austin, who made an entire video and graphic about the two embattled coaches, going so far as to say that the latter is already “fried like chicken.”

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It looks like Austin is placing Norvell ahead of Beamer in hot seat rankings, but is he right?

It might shock you, considering some of the things I’ve written about Norvell and the Seminoles in the past, but I might have to disagree with Austin on this one.

I think Beamer is in even hotter water than Norvell, and there are many reasons this is the case.

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For starters, if we are looking at this through the lens of the 2026 season, South Carolina has a positively brutal schedule coming down the pike, especially compared to Florida State’s slate.

The Gamecocks have to play road games against Alabama, Florida and Oklahoma in conference, as well as a non-conference game against Clemson in Death Valley.

That doesn’t even factor in home games against College Football Playoff hopefuls Tennessee, Texas A&M and Georgia.

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Conversely, Florida State’s schedule, while not exactly a cakewalk, has some spots to breathe.

The Noles travel to Miami and Alabama, but most of their toughest matchups come at home.

I see six solid shots at wins on their schedule just to my naked eye. If Norvell can eek out two more wins out of the other six questionable matchups, then eight wins would show marked improvement and would almost guarantee safety for 2027.

There’s also infinitely more pressure on Beamer relative to the talent he’s amassed for this coming season.

As Austin opines in his video, if Beamer can’t get eight or nine wins in 2026 with the likes of LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor, Dylan Stewart and transfer offensive tackle Jacarrius Peak all likely heading to the NFL after season’s end, then he may never reach that peak again.

And, of course, there is the $60 million elephant in the room (give or take a few greenbacks).

Norvell’s contract makes it so that unless he has an absolute dumpster fire of a season, the powers that be in Tallahassee won’t have the monetary support to pull the plug on his coaching tenure.

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There is a world where 6-6 keeps Norvell in garnet and gold for at least another season. I’m not sure if anyone can say the same about Beamer.

In reality, though, we are splitting hairs.

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These are a couple of coaches who are sitting on blazing hot seats, and the odds are good that both are out of their respective jobs by the end of the year.

Which would be a shame for their career trajectories, but they would then assume the greatest job in America: fired coach with an eight-figure buyout.