Is a Deal With Iran Close?

President Trump was asked about progress in negotiations with Iran today and said that while a deal wasn’t done, it might be close.

Asked by a reporter during an Oval Office event whether a deal had been reached, Trump stopped short of declaring a breakthrough.

“Well, I don’t want to say it has been,” Trump said. “It’s sort of open right now.”…

“I think we’re doing very well,” he said. “I’m involved in the negotiation. I think we’re doing fine. It could be. It could be soon.”

MSNOW is reporting this afternoon that Oman and Iran have agreed to a framework for a deal which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This deal apparently does not involve any tolls.

Oman has agreed to the framework of a deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil export route that Washington and Tehran have been wrestling to control since the war began, two Middle East diplomats with knowledge of the negotiations told MS NOW on Thursday.

The diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. But an Iranian government official linked to the deal told MS NOW on Thursday morning that it will establish new shipping routes by allowing commercial vessels to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman.

The agreement, according to the Iranian official, does not include the collection of tolls from commercial shipping vessels seeking safe passage through the waterway, which Iran has previously sought. The proposal is a “temporary agreement” that would lay the foundation for Washington and Tehran to call a new ceasefire…

The downside here is that Iran maintains the ability to shut down the Strait at any time since ships would be required to use an Iranian shipping route to enter the Gulf.

Mario Nawfal suggested yesterday that the Oman/Iran deal was close and added that what’s next is for Iran’s foreign minister to lean on the country’s hardliners to make a deal with the U.S.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 I am becoming increasingly optimistic the quagmire in the Gulf is largely ending. Trump’s Iran war gamble may be about to become the defining win of his presidency.

If the reports are accurate, the biggest Middle East breakthrough in years is on the two-yard line.

Omani… pic.twitter.com/XS73SSSGM7

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 5, 2026

Omani negotiators and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have reportedly reached an agreement.

Now Araghchi has one job left: convince Iran’s hardliners. He is optimistic he has it in the bag, according to sources close to the talks. 

Behind the scenes, Trump has reportedly spent days bringing Gulf leaders on board for something much bigger than a ceasefire; a new regional order. 

Türkiye, Syria, and Iraq are being positioned as the new pillars of stability, creating a network around Iran that leaves Tehran with a simple choice: join the new architecture, or risk isolation. 

Achieving this will rest on two pillars. First, developing new energy corridors, including pipelines crossing Iraq-Syria-Turkey, that reduce reliance on the Strait while boosting regional prosperity. Second, weakening Iran’s Axis of Resistance financially and politically to erode Tehran’s ability to project power through its proxy militias.

Iran’s nuclear program has been set back, its military capabilities massively degraded, NATO has been pushed to shoulder more of Europe’s security, Gulf states have been reminded they must take greater responsibility for their own defense, and Hamas has been convinced to give up their weapons.

The longer-term goal is even bigger.

A Middle East where regional powers carry more of the burden, the U.S remains the ultimate guarantor, not the permanent garrison, and the Strait of Hormuz loses much of its strategic leverage.

That all sounds good but as J.D. Vance just said the other day, the Iranians are difficult.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance: You try negotiating with Iran, it’s not easy

“Number one, the Iranians are extraordinarily difficult people.

Number two, they have a fractured system.

There are people within their system that want the war to be over and also people in their system that are…

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 6, 2026

So just because things look good today or tomorrow does not mean they will still look good next week. And the problem for Trump and the GOP is that this probably plays a sizeable role in the outcome of the midterms. If Iran remains stubborn and gas prices remain high, that’s going to hurt the GOP’s chances of blunting any advance by the party out of power. If on the other hand prices come down and the war is wound up the outcome should be better. But the Iranians know about the election. The hardliners are undoubtedly relying on it because they know that hurting Trump likely helps Iran.

All that to say, I’m not convinced any deal will happen until after the election but it would be great to be wrong. I’d much rather see some kind of settlement over the next couple weeks.

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all. 

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