Confidential Iran report finds only 9% of Iranians back the regime

A confidential report prepared for Iran’s presidency is raising a consequential question for Washington and its allies: Do extraordinary levels of public anger and support for systemic change justify reassessing whether the Islamic Republic may be more vulnerable to regime change than previously believed?

The classified document, titled “What Iran Wants,” reportedly found that only 9% of respondents supported maintaining the status quo, with 53% calling for fundamental or structural reforms and more than 19% favoring changing the political system outright.

Taken together, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed reportedly supported either deep structural reform or replacement of the existing system — findings that could strengthen arguments that Iran’s political crisis has moved beyond dissatisfaction with individual leaders or policies.

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IranWire reported on July 13 that it had obtained the document, which was compiled by Ali Rabiei, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s social adviser and a former government spokesman. It was based on polling conducted by the Ara Opinion Research Center in May 2026 and circulated among institutions within Iran’s governing structure in June, according to the outlet.

Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the report should prompt a fresh assessment of the potential for political upheaval inside Iran.

“If anything, this research understates the depth of Iranians’ rage,” Maleki said. “And that is what makes it remarkable: even a survey prepared for the regime’s own president, by its own pollsters, records anger levels above 63%, well beyond the highest rate Gallup has ever recorded anywhere in the world, alongside 81% struggling to put food on the table and a majority expressing hopelessness.”

Maleki cautioned that polling conducted under an authoritarian government cannot be treated as precise because respondents may fear the consequences of expressing opposition.

“In a police state where expressing the wrong opinion can cost you your job, your freedom, or your life, respondents self-censor, which means these findings are best read as a floor, not a ceiling,” he said.

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The complete survey methodology was not included in the material obtained by IranWire. The report reportedly did not disclose how respondents were selected, who was questioned or whether the sample reflected Iran’s geographic and demographic makeup.

Its findings therefore cannot be independently verified or treated as definitive measurements of Iranian opinion. The report also cannot establish that dissatisfaction will translate into an organized movement capable of removing the government.

Still, its findings portray multiple pressures converging at once.

Approximately 64% of respondents reported persistent anger, up roughly 12% points from a previous government survey conducted in December 2025. Half reported hopelessness, approximately 48% reported sadness or depression and about 45% reported persistent fear or anxiety, according to IranWire.

Economic distress also appears central to the public anger.

More than 81% experienced severe or partial difficulty obtaining enough food, while 75% struggled to cover medical costs, IranWire reported. Fifty-four percent said their income did not cover current household expenses, and only 8% reported earning enough to save.

Respondents blamed domestic governance more frequently than international pressure. 46.9% cited government inefficiency as the cause of Iran’s economic problems, 26.3% blamed corruption and 20.7% cited foreign sanctions.

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That finding could be especially significant to the regime-change debate because it suggests many Iranians do not primarily blame outside powers for their deteriorating living conditions.

The document also points to a crisis of institutional confidence. Roughly 60% reportedly distrusted major government institutions, while 61.2% negatively assessed officials’ ability to solve Iran’s problems. Distrust of the government, parliament, judiciary and state television remained above 50%, IranWire reported.

The report’s recommendations, however, reportedly centered on managing dissatisfaction rather than addressing demands for systemic change.

Rabiei urged state institutions to better explain the impact of sanctions, moderate the rhetoric used by officials and religious platforms, present a more inclusive image through state television and avoid policies that place the government in direct confrontation with society.

IranWire’s follow-up analysis argued that the recommendations treated Iran’s crisis primarily as a communications and public-perception problem. The report offered few concrete proposals involving institutional accountability, political liberalization or fundamental economic reform, according to the outlet.

Maleki said the findings were consistent with the expanding scale of unrest, citing demonstrations that spread from more than 80 cities in 2017 to more than 200 cities across all 31 provinces this year, alongside what he described as a quadrupling of strikes.

“Iranians have moved from being skeptical of what another revolution might bring to concluding there is no alternative to one, because reform has proven impossible,” Maleki said.

Yet the report does not resolve one of the largest obstacles to regime change: The Islamic Republic has spent decades building institutions designed to monitor, deter and violently suppress organized opposition.

“This regime was born of revolution, by revolutionaries,” Maleki said. “Preventing and crushing the next one is the one thing they genuinely know how to do.”

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He nevertheless argued that further unrest was inevitable.

“So the discontent will translate into renewed protest,” Maleki said. “The question is not if, but when, and whether anyone is prepared to stand with the Iranian people when it does.”