As if this midterm primary cycle hasn’t provided us enough drama! Tonight we have two special contests that will perhaps signal the drift of the overall electorate, but at least will provide us some excitement ahead of next week’s full primary slates in Michigan, Kansas, and a Senate primary in Virginia that might prove interesting.
First up is Georgia, where an all-in special election takes place today that will (possibly) fill the House seat left empty by the death of Democrat David Scott in April. Six candidates are vying to replace Scott, four Democrats and two Republicans, but Georgia election law requires a majority-vote winner. The six-way race and the short run-up to the special election make it less likely that this special election will be settled tonight. If not, Georgia will hold a runoff election next month between the top two vote-getters.
Republicans can hope for a miracle, but shouldn’t plan on one. GA-13 sits on the southeast side of the Atlanta metropolitan area, and it has a Cook index of D+21. In the district’s 24-year history, only one Republican made it to 40 percent, and that was in the first election after the district’s creation for the 2002 election. The last Republican presidential candidate to score 40 percent in this district was Mitt Romney, barely. Kamala Harris won 71 percent of the vote two years ago. It’d be a miracle for a Republican to make it onto a runoff ballot, and even if a Republican won, he’d get the boot in January when Democrats organize better for the November general election.
The outlook brightens in South Dakota, where Republicans will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a runoff. It’s a closed primary, thankfully, so no Operation Chaos will be in play. South Dakota Searchlight sets up the contest:
Gov. Larry Rhoden and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden are the last Republican candidates standing after a four-way primary on June 2. Nobody reached the legal threshold to win that election — the first time that’s happened since lawmakers approved a state law in 1985 requiring a top-two runoff when nobody reaches 35% in primaries for governor, U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Previously when no candidate received 35%, delegates at state political party conventions chose the nominee. …
The scramble for the Republican nomination started in January 2025 when then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to accept a job in President Donald Trump’s administration. Rhoden was Noem’s lieutenant governor and was automatically promoted to serve the last two years of her second term.
Doeden actually finished first, a shock as observers expected Rep. Dusty Johnson to win the primary. Johnson tumbled to third instead, while Rhoden finished six points back of Doeden for second place. However, the only poll listed at RealClearPolling since the first round comes from Emerson, and it puts Rhoden up almost 2:1 over Doeden, 62/32. Interestingly, Donald Trump has not made an endorsement in this race, so perhaps it’s closer than it appears.
Follow the results tonight with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, providing live results in both races today. Next Tuesday, we’ll have a lot more races to watch, especially the Democrat primary in Michigan for the U.S. Senate.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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