Answer: Almost certainly, at least in this round. That may work out well for the GOP, too, but not so much for Americans depending on real alternatives in politics.
Tonight we have a Super Tuesday in the 2026 primaries with five states holding primaries. Most eyes will stay fixed on Michigan and its open Senate seat, where Democrats may come to rue Gary Peters’ decision to retire. The party establishment did their level best to make this primary into a binary contest between socialist radical Abdul El-Sayed and the more mainstream Haley Stevens. However, as our Election Night partners at Decision Desk HQ point out, that may have backfired:
Despite her support from many party leaders, Stevens is the underdog heading into primary day. As of Monday morning, El-Sayed led in Decision Desk HQ’s primary polling average by 13 percentage points, 53%-40%.
El-Sayed holds an edge even as Stevens has had far, far more financial backing. As of July 31, AdImpact reported that the campaigns and outside groups had spent about $81 million on ads in this race, the most ever in a Democratic congressional primary. Of that total, almost $64 million of the spending was in support of Stevens, compared to only around $7 million for El-Sayed.
That’s not an anomaly. RealClearPolling shows the same trend since Mallory McMorrow pulled out; El-Sayed has led every poll since by double digits. Meanwhile, Mike Rogers is poised to win the Republican nomination, and he’s been comfortable enough in the primary to fundraise for the general election. The gen-elex polling has been sparse, but what’s there shows Rogers doing better against El-Sayed than Stevens.
Michigan also has an open gubernatorial seat, as Gretchen Whitmer runs up against term limits. The Democrat primary is all but over, DDHQ notes, but the GOP primary will likely come down to the wire. Donald Trump endorsed Rep. John James, but Perry Johnson has already spent $30 million of his own money and may end up with the nod.
Meanwhile in Missouri, our friend and Salem Radio colleague Chris Stigall is running for Congress in the state’s sixth congressional district. Chris has the endorsement of retiring Rep. Sam Graves and a big money advantage over Nathan Willett. This contest has gotten rather heated, but there will be no problem with the winner carrying the seat in November in a district rated R+19 in the Cook index. We’re rooting for Chris, obviously, but do note that Trump has not made an endorsement in this race despite both candidates making Trump loyalty an issue.
The best opportunity for schadenfreude tonight may come in Missouri’s 1st CD, where Cori Bush wants to make a return to the Squad. It’s a rematch against Wesley Bell, whose primary challenge two years ago produced a mild upset. Once again, this is a DSA-tinged contest, especially on Israel:
The seat’s Democratic primary features a rematch between now-Rep. Wesley Bell and ex-Rep. Cori Bush, whom Bell ousted in the 2024 primary for this seat. An outspoken progressive, Bush primaried a longtime incumbent to win this district in 2020. But in 2024, Bell defeated Bush about 51%-46%, aided by millions in outside support from United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC.
Just two years later, Bush is mounting a comeback against Bell. Her success depends in part on surfing the same wave of energy that has produced successes for other left-wing candidates in Democratic primaries, tied in part to changes in Democrats’ views of the party establishment as well as increasing party’s criticism of Israel and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC. We have seen no recent public polling of this primary, but a February survey by HIT Strategies for Bush’s campaign found Bell only leading by 4 points, 44%-40%. If Bush successfully topples Bell so soon after he beat her, it will be easy to connect her success with the changing mood of the Democratic Party.
In Kansas, Republicans have an opportunity to take back the governor’s office now that Democrat Laura Kelly hit the term limit. Trump has endorsed Ty Masterson, but as DDHQ notes, no public polling data exists. Democrats have two candidates in the primary, and of course, it’s a fight between an establishment choice and an anti-establishment progressive. Kelly has endorsed the mainstream Democrat, Ethan Corson, who also raised more money in this cycle. State senator Cindy Holscher, but the energy on the Left may make the difference.
As for Virginia, even DDHQ can’t find a compelling narrative. It’s a full slate of congressional primaries, including Mark Warner’s Senate seat, but Warner didn’t draw a primary challenger in this cycle. Statewide offices are contested in off-years, so the drama will be minimal. In Washington, the only race of note will be in WA-04, where Republican Dan Newhouse is retiring. Newhouse was the last GOP member left in the House who voted to impeach Trump. The R+10 district should be an easy hold for Republicans, so the real drama will be whether a Democrat can even get on the ballot in Washington’s all-in primaries. There are three Republicans vying against each other and a single Democrat in the race, DDHQ notes, so the likelihood of Democrats getting a spot on the November ballot is probably pretty high.
Follow the results tonight with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, providing live results in all primary races today. Poll closing times are:
- Michigan – some 8 PM ET, some 9 PM ET due to differing time zones
- Missouri – 8 PM ET
- Virginia – 7 PM ET
- Kansas – some 8 PM ET, some 9 PM ET due to differing time zones
- Washington – 11 PM ET
Update, 9:22 pm ET: Looks like Cori Bush lost her comeback bid in Missouri, so that’s a win for common sense and a strike against the Squad. Meanwhile, El-Sayed’s leading in Michigan but not blowing out Stevens like expected. This one may take longer to call than we thought. And Chris Stigall looks ready to advance to the general election in Missouri’s 6th CD. Go Chris!
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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