Iran: We Got a Mighty Convoy, Stuck Here Overnight

Two days ago, the global media rushed to declare that the Iranians had outplayed Donald Trump and his blockade of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC’s proxies in Yemen seized strategic turf in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, damaging Saudi Arabia’s pipeline and sending oil prices higher. The Telegraph reported that the IRGC was “hitting [Trump] where it hurts,” while insisting that the Red Sea action effectively countered – or at least paralleled – the US Navy’s total blockade of Iranian sea traffic:

Iran’s leaders were never going to passively submit to slow strangulation. Facing Donald Trump’s blockade of their ports and the near-total loss of their oil exports, the regime is now striking back across the Middle East, aiming to inflict enough damage to force America to relent.

In the last seven days, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have broken out of their highland strongholds and advanced down the coastal plain, seizing key positions alongside the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where the Red Sea meets the Indian Ocean. …

Iran is now doing everything possible to wreck this alternative, which is why the Houthis have strengthened their hold on the choke point, where they have positioned Iranian-supplied anti-ship missiles.

Much further into the story, though, the Telegraph conceded that this was still both asymmetrical and likely very temporary:

So this is how Iran is trying to break Trump’s stranglehold. And there is plenty more that the Islamic Republic’s leaders might do. They could, for example, resume firing ballistic missiles at the other Gulf states with the twin goals of forcing the oil price still higher and inducing more US allies to implore Trump to reach a new peace agreement.

That option would, of course, risk heavy American retaliation. But, in their own terms, Iran’s actions are logical and effective.

It does not follow, though, that they will necessarily succeed. Some Gulf states, instead of trying to restrain America, might do the opposite and urge Trump to strike even harder at their common enemy. Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has already asked Trump to bomb the Houthis. The United Arab Emirates is officially co-operating with the US campaign to asphyxiate Iran’s economy, known as Operation Economic Outcast.

This is not a “stranglehold,” at least not by the Iranians or the Houthis. Significant amounts of oil are being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Scott Bessent claims that the US Navy now has about 65% capacity restored through its safe-passage corridor through the Strait; other sources estimate it somewhat lower, but everyone now acknowledges that the US has restored a significant level of commerce. The Saudi-UAE pipeline backstopped that until this week, bringing total exports to nearly pre-war levels. That interruption has spiked oil prices, but it’s temporary, and the Saudis now have more reason to go fully into offensive operations to put an end to the partial Houthi occupation of Yemen.

The only ‘stranglehold’ that exists is the one on the IRGC. Even the Telegraph pointed this out, noting that oil shipments from every other Gulf state are increasing through the Strait of Hormuz, but not a single drop has come from Iran:

One certainty is that none of the tankers now passing through the Strait of Hormuz is carrying Iranian oil. By ruthlessly blockading the country’s ports, America is suffocating the regime’s financial lifeline.

The IRGC has countered this by attempting to bolster its trade routes by highway and rail, and across the Caspian Sea with neighboring trade partners. The regime has insisted that Iranians could sustain themselves through these distribution channels, both for exports and imports. Attempts to move oil by rail got stymied by US attacks on rail lines during the July clashes, but the highways were mainly open, and the IRGC propaganda organs painted them as a negation of the American blockade.

How’s that going? The Wall Street Journal reports today that even the open roads have turned into a disaster. Even without any other considerations, the capacity on those channels falls far short of what Iran is losing in the Hormuz blockade. However, the IRGC regime’s corruption and incompetence have made the situation at the crossings much worse, and similar problems in Pakistan aren’t helping either:

Hundreds of Iranian truck drivers are currently stuck at Iran’s border with Pakistan, unable to send their goods into Tehran’s neighbor. They say they are facing worsening bureaucratic hurdles and costs, many caused by their own government. The same thing is happening at Iran’s land borders with Turkey, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, dealing Tehran a self-inflicted blow and throttling trade through its few remaining economic release valves.

Tons of stranded apricots have been spoiled because of the delays. Lucrative cargoes of iron ore, cement and bottled gas are stuck at entry points to the Pakistani and Afghan borders, truckers say.

“Neither Iran is taking responsibility for the situation, nor is Pakistan allowing us to unload our cargo,” one driver says in a video posted by the Union of Truckers and Drivers Organizations Across Iran over the weekend. 

Some of these problems predate the war, the WSJ notes. The customs stations had been understaffed before, but now that traffic has nearly tripled during the blockade, processing on both sides of these borders has all but collapsed. That’s true even with Turkey, where one might expect a little more competence; at the moment, 3,700 trucks are sitting on the side of the road, unable to cross over and deliver their cargoes. 

The backlog is lower on the Pakistan border – 700 trucks are sidelined – but the conditions are much worse:

Iranian truckers trying to get into Pakistan say they can be stuck for several days without access to water, food or sanitation as temperatures rise to 122 degrees Fahrenheit, according to footage, published by the Truckers’ Union on its social-media account. The union said some bottled-gas tankers are crossing into Pakistan. But the Pakistani authorities asked Iranian drivers for the equivalent of more than $10,000 each to cross, an unprecedented amount, it said. A spokesman for Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said he wasn’t aware of any new charges or restrictions at Pakistan’s border with Iran.

Meanwhile, at the border with Turkmenistan, the gateway to China, transporters complain of constraints tied to a lack of warehouses and of a proper registration process to bring goods by rail to China. One businessman complained it was increasingly difficult to bring in automotive spare parts from the Asian powerhouse.

At some point, Iran will run out of truckers, and may run out of refined diesel and gasoline even before that happens. Iranians are reportedly sleeping in their cars at gas stations in order to avoid losing their place in line for heavily-rationed fuel. Having thousands of trucks sitting idle for days and weeks on end not only reduces capacity to get goods to consumers, it also strands the drivers. It adds more costs per unit delivered in the end, both in real costs and opportunity costs. The added costs, both official and graft, are also adding to Iran’s hyperinflation crisis, the issue that touched off the revolt in January. Iran’s officially acknowledged inflation rate in August was a staggering 128% on food, thanks to the added costs and delays of using overland routes. 

That is not sustainable for an authoritarian regime, theological or otherwise. The US and its allies have options for getting goods to market; the IRGC is rapidly running out of options. If Trump keeps the blockade in place rather than attempt to cut a deal for an “October surprise” to boost Republicans’ election efforts in the midterms, he has a real chance to break the regime and force real change in Iran. 

So much for convoys, eh? Maybe Ahmad Vahidi was too much a fan of C.W. McCall. Pig Pen, this here’s Trumpy Duck, and he’s about to put the hammer down … we hope. 10-4?

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are once again respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

Help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.