Why This ‘Inevitable’ Democrat Midterm Sweep Isn’t So Inevitable [WATCH]

Victor Davis Hanson says the 2026 midterm elections remain far less predictable than many current polls suggest, pointing to questions surrounding polling accuracy, campaign spending, redistricting, candidate ideology and the continuing effects of the Iran war and gas prices.

Hanson said Democrats appear increasingly confident that they can capture both chambers of Congress and derail President Donald Trump’s agenda, while Republicans see possible movement in their direction but remain uncertain about whether there is enough time before Election Day.

“We’re about five weeks from the midterms, and maybe we should have another update,” Hanson said.

“Both sides seem to be increasingly confident, although I think the mood on the Democrats is that they’re about to achieve a historic capture of both the Senate and the House, and put an end to Donald Trump’s counter-revolution.”

Gold. Upgraded. Buy real gold from $1. Store it in America. Sell it with one click.

Republicans, Hanson said, are approaching the closing weeks more cautiously.

“The Republicans is a little bit more tentative. They feel that very slowly there’s a turnaround, and the momentum may be going their way. But they’re not sure they have enough time yet,” he said.

Hanson identified gas prices and the Iran war as two of the largest concerns facing Republicans.

“They’re worried about two issues: the price of gas and the unpopularity of the Iran War,” Hanson said.

This Could Be the Most Important Video Gun Owners Watch All Year

He then questioned how much confidence should be placed in current polling, citing several primary contests where he said Democratic candidates performed below expectations.

“The polls are very confident that the Democrats are going to take the House and get very close, if not take the Senate,” Hanson said.

But he argued that recent polling misses should make voters skeptical of overly confident projections.

“As a general rule, most pollsters are Democrats. Most polls tend to exaggerate the strength of a Democratic candidate for most of the race, and see as the race gets down to the election day deadline, many of the pollsters will be more realistic so that they can save their reputations after the balloting is conducted.”

Hanson also pointed to redistricting as another unresolved factor.

“We don’t know the effect. We don’t hear much about it. We had these great red-state redistricting wars,” Hanson said.

Campaign money creates another layer of uncertainty.

Hanson said Democratic candidates have been outraising Republicans in several important statewide races, while Republican-aligned political action committees and major donors could give the GOP an advantage nationally.

“So it’s hard to adjudicate exactly how the money is going to be used, from where it’s going to come from, and who has the advantage,” Hanson said.

“Again, another known unknown.”

Hanson then turned to the ideological records of several Democratic candidates, arguing that statewide contests are exposing positions that may have received less attention during heavily Democratic primary campaigns.

“Something that came up with the Graham Platner candidacy that failed in Maine is that no one really knew how radical these socialists were,” Hanson said.

He cited James Talarico in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota as candidates whose past remarks and positions are becoming increasingly important as Republicans attempt to define them for general-election voters.

“And so what’s happening is, now that these hard-left candidates are in statewide races, they have the enthusiasm of that youthful, and I’ll be candid, overpolled group, but as the race wears on, they are desperately scrambling to hide, cleanse their social media accounts or mask their true socialist belief,” Hanson said.

He argued that this has created an incentive for Republican campaigns and conservative groups to publicize older statements from Democratic nominees.

“And what’s happening is, that causes a reaction from conservatives that are desperate to uncover all the things they’ve said in the past. And they’re pretty embarrassing, to tell you the truth,” Hanson said.

Hanson said the question is whether Republicans can successfully get that information before enough voters prior to Election Day.

“That’s another known unknown. In other words, how much information can the right get out to the public and disseminate it that shows that the candidates on the Democratic side are trying to hide who they are so that they can get elected and then reveal them their true selves only after the balloting is finished.”

He then reviewed several Senate contests individually.

In Michigan, Hanson said El-Sayed remains ahead but argued that Republican Mike Rogers still has an opportunity because of what Hanson described as El-Sayed’s increasingly exposed record and previous polling errors during the primary.

In Maine, Hanson said Susan Collins has historically performed better on Election Day than late polling suggested and argued that she remains competitive against Troy Jackson.

Minnesota, Hanson said, has become unexpectedly close.

He described Flanagan as a candidate who should have had a significant advantage because of her position as lieutenant governor and Minnesota’s political lean, but said Michele Tafoya’s name recognition and campaign have turned the contest into a serious race.

“Peggy Flanagan should have been a shoo-in,” Hanson said.

He also pointed to the fraud scandal in Minnesota and Flanagan’s association with Tim Walz as factors Republicans are likely to emphasize.

Texas is another race Hanson believes could challenge conventional expectations.

He noted that Democrats have long argued demographic changes could eventually turn Texas blue but questioned whether Talarico’s previous positions will appeal to enough statewide voters.

“Democrats always say they’re going to flip Texas because of the changing demography,” Hanson said.

He also discussed Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Georgia and New Hampshire, saying several races that once looked clearer have become more competitive.

“But it’s not over yet. The Republicans tend to be closing a little bit,” Hanson said.

For Hanson, all of those contests lead back to the same larger uncertainty: polling, money and candidate records are only part of the story.

The biggest external questions, he said, involve Iran and energy.

“What’s going to happen in Iran in the next five weeks? Is the regime going to get stronger? Is it going to close the Strait? Is gas going to skyrocket, or is there going to be a coalition, a new coalition of Gulf states, Israel and the United States?” Hanson said.

He said Republicans should also focus more aggressively on economic developments they believe work in their favor.

“I think the Republican ticket in each state needs to emphasize that besides other than gas prices, there’s a lot of good news,” Hanson said.

He pointed to poverty, income, the stock market, and inflation as issues Republicans could use in the final weeks.

Hanson concluded by arguing that the political environment has improved somewhat for Republicans compared with where he believed it stood earlier.

“I would say that the chances that the Republicans are going to hold on to the Senate have gone up to 60-40. The chances that the Democrats will take the House have declined probably from 70-30 to 60-40 in their favor.”

WATCH:

Gold is the oldest answer. SoundMoney makes owning it as easy as the apps you already use.

The opinions expressed by contributors and/or content partners are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of LifeZette. Contact us for guidelines on submitting your own commentary.