Some Good News in the Midst of All the Wave Election Talk

Time magazine ran a story yesterday headlined, “Republican Panic Sets In Over Prospects of a Massive Blue Wave.” That might be overstating things a bit but as the war with Iran drags on and gas prices keep climbing, there is definitely some real concern.

With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, the sentiment among Republicans is shifting from nervous to fatalistic, as a pileup of bad news has many convinced they are heading toward an electoral disaster.

The warning signs are coming in quickly from across the map—much on it from red states where President Trump won comfortably just two years ago. Outside groups backing the GOP are now spending in the millions on Senate races in once-safe territories like Nebraska and Kansas; South Carolina, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Arkansas are all drawing renewed attention amid fears of a historically massive blue wave.

There are a bunch more articles like that one circulating this week. But yesterday the NY Times (of all places) published a story pointing to some good news for the GOP in the midst of all the doom and gloom.

When we last polled Maine’s Senate race, in June, the Republican incumbent Susan Collins was trailing Graham Platner, then the Democratic nominee, by 2 percentage points.

But things have been shaken up since then. Platner left the race after a former girlfriend accused him of rape, which he denied. Troy Jackson, a former logger and state lawmaker, took his place on the ballot. And now, our poll finds Collins with a slim 3-point lead…

A majority of voters say they view Collins positively, which was not the case in our poll over the summer. She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats.

Platner had a real shot in Maine. It’s just lucky for Republicans that he had more red flags that Red Square. And there’s a bit more good news.

Even though Collins is the only of the three Republican Senate candidates in these polls with a lead, all three are outperforming other measures of Republican success.

One example: Each of the Republicans is outrunning President Trump’s popularity in their states, sometimes by double digits. In Michigan, where 34 percent of voters approve of Trump, 44 percent plan to vote for Mike Rogers, the Republican, for Senate.

A less kind way to put it is that the GOP’s numbers suck right now but some candidates appear to be beating expectations with voters. Finally, there’s a party unity issue.

We asked Democrats across the country if they felt the party was united or divided. About half said the party was united, and half said divided. Those numbers are nearly identical to a survey we ran in 2016.

Republicans, on the other hand, are feeling very unified. In our most recent national survey, 70 percent of Republicans said they felt the party was united. That is a dramatic departure from 10 years ago. In 2016, more than 80 percent of Republicans said they thought the party was divided.

So there are some silver linings in a few places, but no one reading this should get the idea this is going to be anything but close. This Washington Post story was published today.

The clearest path to a majority requires Democrats to retain all of their seats and win four GOP-controlled seats, including at least two in states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. That path, which once felt like a long shot, now seems feasible.

A Wednesday update from the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis site, described control of the Senate as “a true coin flip, with viable paths for both parties to win or keep a majority.” Some other analysts have concluded the map is even more favorable to Democrats.

If the Iran war were over, I think there’s still time these numbers could swing back a bit, but Iran is still talking tough at the UN and refusing to give in even as the flow of oil for sale is cut off and inflation is eating their economy alive. Now would be a great time for the world to catch a break that puts an end to the Iranian regime, but the Iranians know how close they are to ruin and they’re hanging on for dear life.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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