Even With the Reopening of the Strait, the Political Fallout Will Remain

The most politically and economically damaging effect of the battle to control the Strait of Hormuz has been the constraints it has put on the supply of oil, gas, and petroleum-based products. 

Dramatic price rises have disrupted the global economy and upended politics worldwide, including in the United States. Trump’s pre-war policies had kept his base excited and put his opponents on the back foot. His daring Venezuela raid that removed Maduro was an unquestionable success, and while Republicans would have most certainly struggled in the midterms despite all the good news, the Iran war fundamentally changed the political dynamic. 

Oil prices never rose to the stratospheric levels predicted, but they certainly rose enough to hurt. Inflation, while never reaching Biden levels, stung.

Front page of @nytimes this morning: we have control of strait of Hormuz and oil and gas traffic has nearly returned to prewar levels. Iran has zero leverage on any front as their economy has collapsed. https://t.co/SzbnBtg9ZZ

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) September 30, 2026

The supply crunch, though, is easing, although not fast enough to matter electorally, and given the nature of oil markets, where even modest supply crunches can translate into significant price increases, the prospect that prices will stabilize at pre-war levels is real, but still distant. 

Oil exports from the Middle East have risen sharply this month, some oil analysts say, taking them closer to the level they were at before Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz in March, a rebound that could ease some pressure on global energy prices.

In September, an average of 10 million barrels of oil has gone through the waterway daily, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks oil tankers. Separately, six million barrels of crude a day has left the Persian Gulf states this month through pipelines and ports that bypass the strait, Kpler’s data shows.

Before the war with Iran began at the end of February, around 19 million barrels of crude left the region daily through the waterway and other routes. Because of the difficulty in tracking tankers, export totals supplied by analysts might not reflect the true flow of oil, but most experts say volumes rose significantly this month.

The turnaround has most noticeably occurred in the strait, even though Iran continues to attack tankers. A U.S. military operation aimed at protecting the vessels from the attacks appears to have encouraged more shipments by big exporting countries, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

It’s hard to say whether Trump underestimated the damage a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause, but it sure looks likely he did. And it’s pretty obvious that he overestimated our capability to reopen the Strait in a timely fashion, likely because he expected the regime to fall or fold quickly. 

The reasons for the persistence of the supply crunch will be great fodder for the analysts; the political and economic realities are problems right here and now. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar (via all routes). At a huge costs and with the help of the US Navy, the group has lifted oil exports to nearly 80% of pre-war levels (Important to note is only *crude*). pic.twitter.com/9lidYlF0qw

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 28, 2026

Almost everybody is expecting an electoral blowout this fall, and the big question now is whether the Republicans can keep the Senate. The House is likely gone, and you can thank oil prices.

If things keep going as they are, oil prices will ease in the coming months, although if the Iranian government holds on, the risk premium will remain. Oil isn’t priced solely on the current supply, but on anticipated replacement costs, and as long as there remains a real worry that Iran has tricks up its sleeve, prices will reflect the risk that supply could be cut at any moment. 

The US has been the world’s largest oil producer for nearly a decade.

Source: @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/2gYQfXbNd2

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) September 30, 2026

High oil prices have made the US the world’s largest oil supplier, which is good for the domestic industry, but a thriving oil industry doesn’t translate into a thriving US consumer, and the latter matters both materially and politically. In the long run, our dominance will benefit all Americans. In the short run, it looks like Trump’s policies are aimed at filling the pockets of the fat cats, and the backlash is harsh. 

Looking back, analysts will likely mark the end of Trump’s dominance in US policymaking with the start of the Iran war, and in particular the Trump administration’s failure to explain the stakes sufficiently before the war began. 

That’s not an indictment of the decision to go to war — that’s a separate issue. It’s an analysis of the political fallout. 

The war is not won; political prices are being paid, and they are steep. The big question is whether Trump can make the costs to America and the Trump agenda worth it. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s leadership, the warrior ethos is coming back to America’s military.

Help us continue to report on Trump and Hegseth’s successes as they make our military great again. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.