While Democrats are hoping for a “blue wave” to hit Election Day and hand over control of Congress, CNN’s political analyst is tossing cold water on those expectations.
Harry Enten showed how the polling ahead of the election shows Democrats are not performing as well as they were in previous midterm elections against a Republican president.
‘It is no guarantee; it is far from a guarantee at this point if you believe these pollsters.’
Democrats are up by five percentage points in generic congressional polling from NBC News, but at the same point of the 2006 midterms, Democrats were ahead by 11 points in polling, and in 2018, they were ahead 10 points.
“And now the Democratic lead is on a single hand,” Enten said.
“Democrats are ahead, but don’t count your chickens just quite yet.”
He showed other signs that the blue wave is receding from the shoreline.
“So this is not just one poll in which we are seeing this. There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not showing the wave you might expect given where the president’s approval rating is,” he explained.
In three separate polls shared by Enten, Democrats failed to increase support from January and February as compared to the results from the same polling four months later. The NBC poll showed them losing 1% of support, Marquette Law School showed them losing 3%, and the Ipsos poll had them even.
Enten went on to point out that redistricting in Republican-controlled states has further eroded Democrats’ edge.
“We really think that Democrats need between three- and four-point advantage in the national polls. You average those polls together … it’s right on the border there. It’s right on the border. It is no guarantee; it is far from a guarantee at this point if you believe these pollsters.”
RELATED: ‘Historic’ loss for John Cornyn shows that the Bush era of the GOP is ‘DEAD,’ Enten says
Democrats have about a 78% chance to win the House of Representatives, according to prediction markets shared by Enten, but Republicans have a 57% chance of maintaining control of the Senate.
On Monday, Enten posted video of the segment to his social media account, where it garnered hundreds of thousands of views.
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