Houston Astros vs. White Sox moneyline pick as sharp money shifts

I had a play last night on the Royals and Tigers game, and to spoil any surprise, it was a loser. I took the Royals at +170 mostly because I felt like the line was way off. I still cashed the under, but I hope anyone who is serious about sports betting takes a look at that article. Despite it being a loss, I loved the play. There was a ton of value on the Royals, who lost 4-3. There are times you need to take shots, and this one rewarded me mentally, because I feel like I at least put myself in the right spot to make money. I’m hoping to actually get the money, physically, in today’s Astros and White Sox game.

The Houston Astros are still hanging in there, but the question if they are going to buy, sell, or stand pat in the next week has to be considered. For the season, they are four games under .500, but they are just two games back of the American League West division. That’s not exactly the position to be in if you plan to throw in the towel. Their best player, Yordan Alvarez, is having an MVP season, yet another reason to keep pushing and see if they can make the postseason.

They did trade away one of their starters already, but I don’t feel like that was a sign of the team trying to give up. I think it was more about their roster and salary than anything. Today, they are putting out Spencer Arrighetti on the mound. For the season, Arrighetti is 7-5 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has been worse on the road with a 5.52 ERA. He also has allowed eight earned runs in both of his past two road starts. I’m thinking he might be coming out of whatever issues he had in June, though. In May, he had a 0.93 ERA, and in June he had a 9.00 ERA. So far, through three starts, he has allowed eight earned runs in four innings, and two earned runs in 11 innings covering two starts.

The Chicago White Sox were expected to be sellers, but this team has some heart and looks like they are piecing things together. Part of the reason sports are so fun is teams like the White Sox. A team that no one expected anything from this year, and they’ve turned it around to be in a playoff race. There is still a long way to go, and one injury could derail the whole thing, but you have to feel solid about how they’ve played and looked if you’re a Sox fan.

One of the brightest spots on this roster has been today’s starter, Davis Martin. For the season, Martin is 9-5 for the year with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Martin has been elite at Guaranteed Rate Field this season with a 1.80 ERA. He has only allowed nine earned runs at home in 45 innings. And, five of those earned runs came in the last start against the Red Sox. Perhaps most impressive is that he has allowed just 33 walks all year, and only 10 have come at home.

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Baseball is a sport in which you usually do have the opportunity to follow the sharps and line movement fairly confidently. There aren’t a ton of public bettors loading up on teams. Sharp money tends to move these lines, and the line is moving in favor of the Astros. However, sharps don’t always win either. There is also a move where they will bet on one side, just to lower the line and get bigger money on the opposite side. I could see that happening here.

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If you don’t understand what that means, no worries. Basically, I think the White Sox are going to win this game. Martin is a better pitcher, in better form, and more reliable as a home starter. Arrighetti is bad on the road, and something has been wrong with him since June. It is possible that sharps saw some good value in the Astros, but now that the line is a lot lower, I think the Sox are the right side and could see money poured into them late. Give me the White Sox on the moneyline.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024