Mets vs Reds betting preview: Why the over 9.5 runs looks like the play in Cincinnati matchup

It was not the prettiest day on Monday for me and the sports betting plays. I took Spain to go over their team total and they promptly scored zero goals against an inferior opponent. I took a swing on a value play at plus money that lost, and then split the play on the Athletics as they went over the total for the game by themselves. Let’s get back on the winning ways as the Mets take on the Reds.

At least New York has the Knicks, right? The New York Mets, who are trying to buy a championship in their own way, are below .500 and look like they probably will not make the postseason. Anything is possible and there is still plenty of time, but there is no denying that this team is underperforming significantly. They are 32-40 for the season with a 14-22 record on the road.

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The starting pitching is doing its job. Collectively, the staff has a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. The hitting has them at just .230 for the season. Today the starter will be Kodai Senga, who has some ugly numbers but he also hasn’t pitched since April, so most of those are inflated because he hasn’t put in enough work to lower them. In his first two starts, he went 11.2 innings and allowed four earned runs total. In his next three starts, he went 8.1 innings and allowed 16 earned runs. Reds hitters are just 3-for-20 against Senga. 

The Cincinnati Reds are currently floundering around that .500 record. They are 34-37 for the season with an 18-18 record at home. They made the postseason last year, and if they have hopes of doing it this year, they probably will need to do it via a Wild Card berth again. I think the Reds are one of those teams that have some pieces, but really need a hot streak to make it work out. They had one at the start of the season, getting to 20-11. Unfortunately for them, they’ve gone 14-26 since that stretch. 

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Today, the starter will be Brady Singer with hopes of getting another win in the series. Singer has been a bit out of tune so far this season with a 2-6 record, a 5.61 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He has been slightly better at home than on the road. His biggest issue is that he has allowed 17 homers this year, with nine of them coming at home. The Reds have lost Singer’s last seven starts. Collectively, the Mets are hitting .241 against Singer in 58 at-bats. 

The Reds got the best of the Mets yesterday, putting up 12 unanswered runs and shutting out New York. Cincinnati took the first game of the series, and now has a chance to win the series overall, but it won’t be easy against Senga. Singer hasn’t done a good job of putting the Reds in position to win games, either.

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I don’t know who is better to pick to win this game. I can make a legitimate case for both. Senga, when fully healthy, is the better starter, but I don’t know if he will go three, five or seven innings here. I think we are more likely to see runs, even with bad offenses. Singer is likely to give up a bunch, and Senga probably will be a little rusty and allow a few. Give me the over 9.5.