NYC public schools projected to lose 153,000 students by 2035

New York City’s public schools are projected to drop, mirroring the downward trend of its overall population since last year.

According to a “Statistical Forecasting” prepared for the New York City School Construction Authority, New York City is projected to lose thousands of students in the 2034-35 school year.

“Enrollment is projected to be 721,251 in 2034-35, which would be a decline of 153,000 students from the 2024-25 enrollment,” the outlet reported.

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“Over the next ten years, enrollments are projected to decline in each of the five boroughs. Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx are projected to have the largest declines in the next ten years, losing 45,000, 43,000, and 35,000 students, respectively,” it added.

The projected shortfall was attributed to continuing falling birthrates, an exodus of residents, and an aging population. “Statistical Forecasting was retained by the New York City School Construction Authority (“SCA”) to perform enrollment projections for the New York City Public Schools for the ten-year period beginning with the 2025-26 school year and ending in 2034-35,” the document states.

This reflects broader enrollment declines in major cities across the country as they struggle to retain students due to parents seeking alternative options outside their neighborhood public schools.

The New York Times reported on Friday that the number of kindergarten through 12th grade public school students in the U.S. has declined in 30 states since the mid-2010s.

New York City public schools lost 22,000 students this year from last year’s 906,248 students. According to preliminary Department of Education data, a total of 884,400 students were enrolled in the city’s traditional public schools. NYC had more than 1,002,000 students enrolled at the start of the 2019-2020 school year, meaning it has since lost more than 117,000.

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A spokesperson for NYC public schools told Fox News Digital in January that enrollment can shift for many reasons.

“New York City Public Schools is committed to providing a world-class education for all our students,” spokesperson for NYC Public Schools, Isla Gething, told Fox News Digital. 

“Enrollment can shift for many reasons, and these are trends we monitor closely. Our focus remains on delivering strong academic programs and safe learning environments in every classroom. We continue to engage the whole school community as we plan for the future of our schools with a long term focus on stability, equity, and providing an excellent education regardless of enrollment fluctuations.”

The study came while New York City is facing a renewed exodus. 

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According to a Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) study released last month, the Big Apple lost more residents than it gained last year. The report found that New York City lost approximately 114,000 more domestic residents to other U.S. cities than it gained in 2025, reversing two years of marginal growth.

The CBC reported that the decline is underscored by residents seeking a “value proposition” in other places with aims to find lower costs of living, taxes, and overall quality of life.

NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the city’s education department did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.