As we covered earlier today, murder rates are dropping like a rock across the country. Some cities are seeing more success than others, though, and Baltimore, Maryland is one of those places. The city had more than 300 murders a year between 2015 and 2022, but last year Baltimore saw 133 homicides. This year the city’s police commissioner is aiming for fewer than 100.
That’s a remarkable turnaround, and the New York Times has done a fairly in-depth report that acknowledges the reasons for the decline are “some enigmatic mix of policy, practice, economics and other unknowable factors,” adding that credit or blame are “impossible to assign precisely.”
Instead of digging into data, the NYTimes report profiles a number of individuals who see Baltimore’s violence every day; a homicide detective, a trauma nurse, a community activist, a prosecutor, and even a mortician. Each of them talk about what the decline in shootings means for them, and it’s a pretty interesting read.
I was struck, though, that there was virtually no acknowledgement at all from the Times or any of its subjects who were interviewed that this dramatic decline in violent crime has coincided with a rise in the number of people who are legally carrying firearms in Baltimore.
2022 was the last year that Baltimore had more than 300 homicides. It was also the year that Maryland’s “may issue” concealed carry law was voided by the Bruen decision. The opinion was released in early June, and by the end of December 2022, about 80,000 new licenses had been issued.
In 2021 there were a little more than 21,000 licenses statewide. In April of last year the number was more than 200,000.
That’s statewide, not just in Baltimore, but it’s almost certain that there are tens of thousands of people who are legally carrying a gun in the city today who weren’t doing so just a few years ago.
The gun control lobby insisted that Bruen would cause crime to increase, especially in “may issue” places like Maryland. Instead, lawful gun owners are such a non-issue that they didn’t come up in conversation with any of the people the New York Times spoke with.
The nurse didn’t complain about an influx of new gun carriers accidentally shooting themselves or others. The homicide detective didn’t claim that murders involving concealed carry holders have spiked while homicides involving the illegal carrying of guns has plummeted. The violence prevention advocate didn’t try to argue that “shall issue” makes his job more difficult because more of the high-risk individuals he works with are now legally carrying a handgun.
Now, none of them credited the concealed carry law for helping to reduce the homicide rate either, but I honestly wouldn’t expect that from the folks they spoke with.
I think it’s at least worth considering, though. I honestly don’t know if there’s been a rise in reported defensive gun uses, but it would not surprise me in the least if at least part of the pretty dramatic decline in homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults is because some would-be criminals have decided the prospect of running into an armed victim makes the potential risk outweigh the potential reward.
State’s Attorney Ivan Bates has made it a priority to prosecute repeat violent offenders who are caught illegally possessing a gun, and I suspect that’s had a significant impact too. We know that a small number of individuals are responsible for a great amount of violent crime, and when they’re being barred they’re no longer in a position to commit those crimes.
Those licensed to carry a concealed firearm aren’t likely be a part of that small group of individuals. In fact, lawful gun owners in general aren’t the ones committing the vast majority of violent crimes, and gun control laws like Maryland’s “assault weapons” ban, permit-to-purchase a handgun, waiting periods, and more could be struck down or repealed without any impact on public safety.
That won’t happen without a court order, but I suspect that we’ll see just that within the next year with the Supreme Court striking down “assault weapon” bans. If the past offers any predictions for the future, the gun control lobby will scream that the decision will mean more violence… and they’ll be proven wrong yet again as time passes.
Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their radical gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.
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