Padres’ Mason Millers path to Cy Young requires unprecedented dominance

When Korn’s “Blind” blares from Petco Park’s speakers in the top of the ninth inning, the San Diego Padres’ opponent knows the game is over because Mason Miller is coming into the game.

The lights around the ballpark flash on and off while the music blares, moments before Miller turns the lights off on whichever unfortunate hitters have to face him.

The 27-year-old Pittsburgh native has been a different kind of dominant so far this season. In 11 games, he has a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA, recording eight saves in 11.1 innings pitched. He has allowed just four baserunners to start the season, yielding just two singles and two walks.

What makes Miller’s scoreless start to the season even more impressive? He has faced 38 batters and struck out 27 of them, good for an otherworldly 71.1% strikeout percentage. He averages 21.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

Yet, even if Miller keeps up his video game-like start to the season, does he have a realistic chance to win the Cy Young? Highly unlikely.

The Padres closer currently has the fifth-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes – +260
2. Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto – +380
3. Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez – +550
4. Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale – +950
5. Miller – +1500

So, what does Miller have to do to feasibly have a chance to win the NL Cy Young? Something not seen before.

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First, let’s look back at the previous nine relievers to win the Cy Young Award.

Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974

Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977

Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979

Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981

Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984

Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987

Mark Davis, Padres, 1989

Dennis Eckersley, for the then-Oakland Athletics, 1992

Eric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003

We can safely rule out Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched), and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) as comparisons because Miller will not pitch nearly as many innings this season. Miller is on pace to throw roughly 81 innings this season.

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Miller’s projected 81 innings falls in line with the other five relievers. Fingers threw 78 innings, Bedrosian threw 89, Davis threw 92.2, Eckersley threw 80, and Gagne threw 82.1.

Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA in his year, but Miller will have to pitch better than that to win the award. Paul Skenes, who won the 2025 NL Cy Young, was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA in 187.2 innings pitched in 32 starts.

Skenes, the odds-on favorite at the time of this writing, currently has a 3-1 record in five starts with a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings pitched. His ERA is inflated because he allowed five runs and only recorded two outs against the New York Mets on Opening Day. In the four starts since, he has allowed just three runs.

So, let’s look further into Davis, Eckersley, and Gagné’s cases.

Davis, in 62 games, had a 4-3 record, 44 saves, and a 1.85 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 92.2 innings.

Eckersley, in 69 games, had a 7-1 record, 51 saves, and a 1.91 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 80 innings.

Gagné, in 77 games, had a 2-3 record with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 82.1 innings pitched.

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All of those seasons are incredible, but if they happened in 2026, they probably wouldn’t win the Cy Young. Baseball has changed too much since when they won.

The two main differences between eras are the innings in which starting pitchers throw and the quantity of elite relievers in today’s game.

In 2003, 20 pitchers threw over 200 innings. Last season, only four pitchers threw over 200 innings, making starting pitchers who are both a) able to throw 185-200 innings and b) with a high one and low two ERA more valuable nowadays than they were then.

Combine that with more relievers coming out of the bullpen firing 100+ mph fastballs with wipeout off-speed stuff, it makes Miller not as much of an outlier as he would have been 25 years ago. No reliever is dominating quite like he is this season, but many aren’t too far off.

St. Louis Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien has a 0.00 ERA in 12 games with six saves in 12.1 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts.

The voters aren’t as taken to one closer dominating today like they might have two to three decades ago when not as many people were doing it.

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Unfortunately for Miller, he might become another star closer who becomes a victim of a new era of baseball in Cy Young voting.

Since 2016, only two relievers have finished higher than fourth place in Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles’ relief ace Zach Britton (4th) and Cleveland Guardians star closer Emmanuel Clase (3rd).

In 2016, Britton, in 69 games, had a 2-1 record with a 0.54 ERA with 47 saves, striking out 74 hitters in 67 innings. A whopping 79% of balls put in play against him were groundballs. Yet despite that, he finished fourth.

Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello won the Cy Young that season instead. He went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 223 innings pitched.

In 2024, Clase, in 74 games, had a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves while striking out 66 hitters in 74.1 innings.

Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the Cy Young that season instead. He went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo finished in second, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings pitched.

Reliever dominance isn’t valued the same in today’s game as it was then.

Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for the Boston Red Sox last season in 67 games and finished in seventh place.

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This isn’t to say Miller can’t win the award, but he has a major uphill climb.

While he isn’t likely to strike out 71.1% of batters he faces throughout the season, and he’ll eventually give up some runs, he might have to strike out hitters at a historical rate, while also leading the National League in saves, to keep the voters’ attention throughout the season.

This isn’t to say that the voters are blind to the relievers’ dominant seasons over the past decade, but recent history shows hitters might have a better chance at getting on base against Miller than Miller does at winning the Cy Young Award.

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