SHOCK POLL: Republican leads NY Governor Hochul one year before the election

New York City voters may be on a different page than the rest of the state.

Despite Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani maintaining a significant advantage in the polls ahead of the NYC mayoral election, one Republican is looking to flip the state red next year.

For example, 60% of registered voters in New York … either strongly support or somewhat support returning to the pre-2019 bail laws.

RealClearPolitics has Mamdani boasting a 15-point lead average across the last six polls in October. With around 46 points, Mamdani’s lead has only widened since July.

In new numbers from the Manhattan Institute, the Democratic socialist and alleged communist maintains that lead over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, a former Democrat now representing the Fight and Deliver Party.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is third, 24 points behind Mamdani and nine points behind Cuomo.

At the same time, however, pollsters asked respondents how they would vote if the 2026 N.Y. gubernatorial election were held today.

Shockingly, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) held a slim margin over Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul. Stefanik’s lead was just one point, 43% to 42%, while “someone else” had 9% support, and “not sure” was at 7%.

RELATED: LGBTQ champion Zohran Mamdani faces backlash over photo with ‘anti-homosexuality’ Ugandan lawmaker

Photo by Andres Kudacki/Getty Images

Stefanik’s team responded to the news:

“In a heavily Democrat-leaning state, an independent poll that is heavily weighted toward registered Democrat voters shows Republican Elise Stefanik leading Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a head-to-head matchup,” Stefanik’s spokesperson Bernadette Breslin said in a press release.

Breslin said it was the first time in decades that any Republican candidate for governor of New York has polled ahead of a Democrat incumbent.

The remarks continued, “In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the worst governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the defund the police, tax-hiking, raging anti-Semite socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.”

Though rumors have swirled for months that Stefanik intends to run for governor, she has not formally announced her candidacy. Reports indicate that she will announce sometime after the November 4 election.

RELATED: Cuomo narrows gap in new poll

Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images

While Mamdani maintains a strong lead in the city, some of his progressive policy positions range from somewhat unpopular to widely unpopular in updated polling.

For example, 60% of registered voters in New York, including 49% of Democrats, either strongly support or somewhat support returning to the pre-2019 bail laws. This pertains to allowing individuals to be “released until trial rather than being held.”

Mamdani has said he wants to reduce the jail population, specifically at Rikers Island.

One of Mamdani’s biggest promises, free bus services, saw 58% of New York City respondents oppose the idea. This figure included 48% of Democrats. Meanwhile, 42% of Democrats agreed with the idea that eliminating fares would make public transit more affordable and efficient for working New Yorkers while reducing conflicts between riders and operators.

Other topics — like New York’s gifted and talented programs, corporate taxation, and fare evasion — were covered in polling conducted with 600 likely voters in the NYC mayoral election and 300 registered voters across New York state between October 22 and 26. The poll was weighted to reflect the electorate.

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