As Battlefield Progress Slows, Putin Signals Interest in Ending the War

Russia’s advances in Ukraine have always been slower in the winter but this winter they dropped dramatically. In January, Russia probably lost more territory than it gained for the first time in years.

After making gains late last year, the Russian military has slowed to a crawl. In some parts of Ukraine, it has lost territory. At its average monthly rate of advance so far this year, it would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of the Donbas, which the Kremlin has set as a condition for ending the war…

…the pace of Russia’s advance has slowed this year, according to the three main organizations tracking the battlefield, the Institute for the Study of War, Black Bird Group and DeepState.

Two of the groups say there have been months in which Russia suffered net territorial losses, though the ever-widening gray zone on the front has led to differing interpretations of what constitutes captured territory.

Russia’s meager gains in the past three months, according to Black Bird’s statistics, amounted to its worst battlefield performance within Ukraine since 2023.

What limited gains Russia has made have come with heavy casualties. An estimated 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war by the end of last year, according to figures released this weekend by the Russian outlets Mediazona and Meduza. That is more than six times the number of U.S. troops killed during the Vietnam War.

The total number of Russia casualties is closer to a million and Russia seems to have run out of prisoners to send to the front lines. Now it’s offering money and trying to lure more university students into signing up.

“All the ‘top’ people in the university are now calling on students to go to war.”

“Throughout the uni, there are posters about the UAV forces literally everywhere.”

“The pressure is colossal.”

These are all quotes from Russian students in direct messages to CNN. We are not naming any of them, or their universities, for fear of reprisals but accounts like these, along with a growing body of open-source evidence, suggest that Russia is quietly escalating a campaign to entice and pressure students into its drone forces.

Ukraine claims that it has killed or injured more Russian soldiers in the first three months of this year than Russia has been able to recruit. And US and EU intel agencies say Russia is falling short of its recruiting targets. Obviously, that kind of shortfall can’t go on for very long. Soon, Putin might have to take more dramatic action to push people toward the front lines.

That may be why Putin suggested over the weekend, during his very brief Victory parade in Moscow, that the war might be headed for an end.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used the weekend’s hallowed May 9 Victory Day parades, commemorating the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany, to utter something remarkable: that he believed the matter of the Ukrainian conflict “was coming to an end.” This comment, Putin’s first real indication his war of choice might be nudging towards a conclusion, came after a lengthy lament about the failed negotiations at the start of the 2022 invasion, and was extraordinarily brief…

Yet all the same, on a day when Moscow was in full military flex, he chose not to sound the maximalist bugle – that the “special military operation” must continue until its goals are met. (Spoiler: Those goals – demilitarizing Ukraine and taking its eastern Donbas region – are nowhere near achieved.) Instead, Putin seemed to reflect the prevailing sentiment in Russia, supported by recent opinion polls, that the war needs to end soon.

Putin even suggested a new moderator for peace talks.

There was another twist to Putin’s surprise gambit: he suggested Gerhard Schröder, who was German chancellor from 1998 to 2005 during Putin’s early honeymoon with the West, be the negotiating point man for any future, direct talks with Europe. Schröder was chairman of the board of Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline project until he resigned upon the 2022 invasion, but has remained close to Putin. He’s been discredited in the eyes of many by that association, and the immediate response to this idea in Europe was reportedly weak, but it may be heard in Washington, DC and further complicate genuine efforts to get peace moving.

It’s too soon to say this is headed toward closure but Putin certainly has plenty of reasons to begin wondering if dragging this out for another year will really benefit him. There continue to be signs the Russian economy is struggling.

According to data from the central bank this week, GDP contracted 0.5% year over year in the first quarter, far below projections for 1.6% growth, due in part to an increase in the value-added tax the Kremlin imposed to pay for its war on Ukraine.

With economic activity slowing and rates still high, more Russian companies have missed debt payments. There were 11 technical defaults in 2024, 24 in 2025, and already 11 in just the first three months of 2026, according to Izvestia.

Sources told the Russian newspaper that nearly 25% of the bond market is now at risk of default as businesses that borrowed at low rates must refinance at much higher ones.

The volume of debt that needs to be rolled over this year is about double from last year, adding pressure on cash flows and raising competition for liquidity, according to the report, which cited a source that called the default problem a systemic trend.

At some point the damage to the economy drags Putin’s popularity lower and the scattered calls for change start to become more common, despite the danger of speaking up. A failing system can only keep going for so long. Putin may not be serious about taking an off ramp, but the fact that he feels the need to pretend he is heading that direction is revealing in itself.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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