Count Me As Skeptical About MOU

Earlier today, Duane made the optimistic case about Trump’s Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. Ed shared his thoughts as well. 

I sincerely hope he is right that President Trump negotiated a great deal with the Iranian regime, and all that triumphant language coming from Iran is them just blowing smoke.

Since none of us in public have seen the MOU, we are all speculating. There is plenty of data to look at, but the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns are the missing pieces that will tell the tale, and the first real glimpse we get of the MOU will, we are told, come this Friday at the signing ceremony, assuming it happens. 

Iranian hardliners protested the proposed US-Iran agreement, chanting against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as conservatives accuse negotiators of making too many concessions. https://t.co/b7Xx0Nar9E

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) June 14, 2026

Before I get to my own take, which is not nearly as positive, let me back up Duane with evidence supporting his view: there are many indications that Iranian hardliners are unhappy with the deal. That would suggest Iran had to swallow some bitter pills to cross the finish line, which, from an American perspective, indicates the deal did not amount to a complete capitulation to Iranian demands. 

Now for the bad news: the deal, as it has been described by both Pakistan and Iran so far, sure looks close to a complete American capitulation to Iran’s demands, including acknowledging that Iran has the right to enrich uranium to some extent. 

Iranian Mehr News Agency has published the supposed 14 clauses of the MOU

$12 billion of Iran’s frozen funds to be released before negotiations begin, with another $12 billion during the 60-day final negotiation window.
Oil and petrochemical sanctions suspended.
Full naval…

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 14, 2026

Iranian Mehr News Agency has published the supposed 14 clauses of the MOU

$12 billion of Iran’s frozen funds to be released before negotiations begin, with another $12 billion during the 60-day final negotiation window. 

Oil and petrochemical sanctions suspended. 

Full naval blockade lifted within 30 days.

The U.S. commits to non-interference in Iranian affairs, withdrawal of forces from around Iran, and no new sanctions or force deployments during negotiations. 

An immediate ceasefire is required on all fronts, including Lebanon. 

The Strait of Hormuz reopens within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. 

A 60-day window is set to negotiate a final deal covering nuclear issues and full sanctions removal. 

The U.S. and allies must also present reconstruction plans worth at least $300 billion.

Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups are removed from the agenda entirely. 

No final negotiations begin until the $12 billion is released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the blockade is lifted.

A supervisory mechanism will oversee implementation, with any final agreement approved by UN Security Council resolution.

The White House has not confirmed that the Iranian description of the deal is accurate, and we definitely should hope that it is not, because if it is, it would amount to a capitulation to Iran.

Unfortunately, there are plenty of indications that the description is not entirely inaccurate. When pressed on the reparations (“reconstruction plans”), J.D. Vance did not deny them. He spun them. 

Not good. As conservatives have said for decades about things like Planned Parenthood, money is fungible.

We’d just be facilitating the rearmament of Iranian radicals and funding its terror proxies across the globe if we facilitate a $300B “reconstruction fund.” https://t.co/FeaYOwnb4s

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 15, 2026

We do know that Iran will begin selling oil again, and thus raking in billions of dollars, relieving enormous pressure on the regime. 

Just as troubling, we are told that Iran is promising not to build a nuclear weapon, but Iran has been promising that forever, and until now we didn’t believe them. The guarantee this time is that we should trust Trump would prevent it. Fine, but Trump has two years left in office.

Gonna point out that while some of you ranted at me yesterday for not falling in line and questioning this “deal,” Vance confirmed this morning that 1) The Strait is still under dispute, 2) The nuclear issue still has to be negotiated, and 3) The $300B fund exists. https://t.co/AbBz7HgUqT

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 15, 2026

Trump has indicated that he doesn’t worry about Iran enriching uranium to the level necessary for nuclear power, which is a pretty strong climbdown from earlier positions he has taken, and it isn’t clear that Iran will give up the enriched uranium they currently have. That is to be negotiated after the MOU is signed. 

What about an open Strait of Hormuz? What we know is that toll-free passage is supposedly guaranteed for the 60 days of negotiation post-MOU, but Iran insists that they will charge “fees” for “services,” and that Iran and Oman will jointly control the Strait. 

Iran on Monday said it intends to charge fees for protection and maritime services on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington expects toll-free transit through the strategic waterwayhttps://t.co/dv8RYNv3IL

— The New Region (@thenewregion) June 15, 2026

In other words, there won’t be “tolls,” just fees. Distinction without a difference. 

Vice President Vance seems to believe that Iran has turned over a new leaf and that a new period of friendship and cooperation may be just around the corner. 

It’s this type of open spin that is making people very wary of believing that this deal will end up being a net positive.

If we got good terms, they should speak for themselves and include verification that doesn’t require pretending that the Islamists are suddenly peaceful.

— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 15, 2026

Yikes. 

Either this is just an attempt at public spin or demonstrates an astonishing level of ignorance about the Islamic Republic and their goals. 

The Islamists who just murdered 40K of their own people earlier this year and have spent almost 5 decades terrorizing the world aren’t suddenly repentant and peace-seeking. Their goals haven’t changed because they are driven by an extreme ideology that requires the destruction of western civilization and complete control. 

You can make short-term deals with them to avoid immediate conflict, but it is not helpful to anyone to ignore the reality of the enemy we face

Vance, it seems, is the face of the deal, and he is certainly indicating a level of trust in the Iranians that I and many others do not share. 

JD Vance on Iran:

We are extending an open hand to Iran. If they want to change their relationship with us, we will change our relationship with Iran.

That’s the offer. pic.twitter.com/jTzSQfeH2r

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 15, 2026

While there is a lot of talk about Israel acting as the skunk at the garden party and that they should abide by the deal, what isn’t clear is why they should. After all, it sure seems like the “deal” is totally asymmetrical, giving Iran sovereignty over Lebanon and Hezbollah impunity to attack Israel without Israel having permission to defend itself. 

Evidence for that? Well, obviously Trump committed Israel to leave Lebanon and give up its fight against Hezbollah—something even the Lebanese government doesn’t want—and the fact that Trump exploded at Israel for taking out a Hezbollah commander after the terrorist group sent rockets into Israel. 

So I have this right: Tehran is ordering their terror proxy in Lebanon to fire missiles into Israel. Then when Israel is forced to respond to maintain deterrence, Trump is offering Tehran more concessions as a reward for not launching further attacks?

This is basically… https://t.co/dRp1ukRzxY

— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 14, 2026

So I have this right: Tehran is ordering their terror proxy in Lebanon to fire missiles into Israel. Then when Israel is forced to respond to maintain deterrence, Trump is offering Tehran more concessions as a reward for not launching further attacks?

This is basically incentivizing Hezbollah missiles because Israel because they know either they will be rewarded by a lack of response or they will create division because Trump is desperate for a deal at any cost. 

I don’t deny that Israel owes us loyalty; it does. But that loyalty shouldn’t include a commitment to commit suicide to please Iran, which continues to attack it through proxies. 

Most of the claims about Iran’s commitments about nuclear enrichment and nuclear weapons seem to be spin for now, because the MOA just commits Iran to negotiate the final conditions over the next 60 days. The MOA is not a peace deal, but basically a codification of a cease-fire based on a series of temporary concessions by both sides.

US forces must withdraw from areas surrounding Iran 30 days after a final agreement is reached, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported, citing an informed source who said the requirement was included in Article 4 of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding.

According to…

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) June 15, 2026

US forces must withdraw from areas surrounding Iran 30 days after a final agreement is reached, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported, citing an informed source who said the requirement was included in Article 4 of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding.

According to Tasnim, the source said under Article 9 of the memorandum of understanding, no additional US forces would be deployed to the region during the 60 days of talks toward a final agreement, and Iran would not carry out nuclear activities during that period.

Tasnim cited the source as saying that under Article 9, Washington had committed not to impose new sanctions during the 60 days of final-agreement talks.

Under Article 7, if a final agreement is reached, the United States has committed to lifting primary and secondary sanctions, as well as UN Security Council sanctions and Board of Governors measures, the report said.

The source said that under Article 11, after the memorandum of understanding is signed on June 19, sanctions waivers related to the sale of oil, petrochemicals and derivatives in the areas of transport, sales, insurance and oil-sale transactions would take effect.

The source said that under Article 8, the two sides would hold talks during the 60-day negotiation period, which can be extended, on nuclear issues including enrichment and stored nuclear material.

Of course, the United States could make serious progress toward achieving our war aims during those negotiations, so it’s not quite right to say that the MOU amounts to a final capitulation to Iran. Iran could really be blowing smoke about its current position of strength and willingness to hold out against economic pressure. 

This morning, when asked about the Strait, Vance said the expectation is that it will be open and free for the long term.

That sounded like purposeful framing.

What is it going to be for the next 60 days? What does the agreement actually say? And why not just announce it? https://t.co/hfTVolr7zH

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 15, 2026

On the other hand, we are a long way off from the unconditional surrender that Trump kept touting. Essentially, we are being told to trust that Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat, and that forcing Israel to sit and take Hezbollah attacks now will ensure no Hezbollah attacks in the future, or that Iran will refrain from closing the Strait and shooting missiles at Israel once a deal is cut. 

So far, all we know for certain is that Trump and Vance are claiming the deal is much better than it appears. He has earned some trust, but then again, he seemingly hasn’t achieved his stated war aims. 

Vice President JD Vance says that the deal between the U.S. and Iran “ensures that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, while simultaneously opening the Strait of Hormuz.”

The vice president shares more details about the agreement, including some of the obligations Iran will… pic.twitter.com/MaUZQWP3ZG

— CBS Mornings (@CBSMornings) June 15, 2026

Is it a good deal, or will it lead to a good deal? We really don’t know yet. But until we see the MOU and what the final negotiations bring, we have a right to be skeptical. So many predictions about what would happen have turned out to be wrong, and so many promises that peace was right around the corner have proven to be spin. 

According to Vance, everything will turn out great if Iran seizes a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to embrace peace, and the US has all the cards to play if they don’t. Perhaps. But these are the guys who open meetings with “Death to America.”

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