Hochul’s Lead Over Stefanik Falls After Record Comes To Light: POLL

Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s five-point lead over Republican New York Rep. Elise Stefanik appears to shrink to less than one point after voters hear both candidates’ records, according to a new GrayHouse poll obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

New York’s gubernatorial election is roughly one year away. Stefanik announced her bid for governor in September. While some polls have shown Hochul maintaining a lead, the GrayHouse survey, conducted on behalf of E-PAC, Stefanik’s Leadership PAC, shows Hochul in a “deeply vulnerable position.” This, at a time when major changes are potentially coming to the state’s largest city as socialist Democratic New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani leads in the polls.

According to the survey of 1,250 likely 2026 midterm voters in New York, Hochul initially leads Stefanik 48% to 43%. After voters, however, were presented with both lawmakers’ records — including Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani, her bail reform record and cost-of-living failures — her lead drops sharply, with Hochul holding 46.4% to Stefanik’s 45.9%. (RELATED: Major US City Likely To Be Stuck With Socialist Mayor, Even If Most Voters Reject Him)

“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party. It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the communist antisemite running for Mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party,” Stefanik said in a statement.

“Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills,” Stefanik added. “Kathy Hochul’s single-party Democrat rule affordability crisis, coupled with the crime crisis from failed bail reform, combined with the sanctuary state policies costing, putting criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last, is a political disaster for Hochul.”

Data from the poll shows only 10% of respondents “strongly approve” of Hochul’s job performance, compared to 44% who “strongly disapprove.” Among those who strongly approved, 1% were Republicans, 19% were Democrats, and 6% were independents. Among those who strongly disapproved, 85% were Republicans, 8% Democrats, and 50% independents.

While Hochul holds a 40% favorability rating compared with Stefanik’s 35%, the survey shows the Democratic governor has a 57% unfavorable rating to Stefanik’s 33% unfavorable. Among independents, Hochul received a 64% unfavorable rating, 31% favorable and 49% very unfavorable. In comparison with independents, Stefanik holds a 37% favorable rating versus 35% unfavorable, with 21% very favorable.

In September, Hochul endorsed Mamdani in an op-ed for The New York Times after she said she heard “a leader who shares my commitment” to New York.

“In the past few months, I’ve had frank conversations with him. We’ve had our disagreements. But in our conversations, I heard a leader who shares my commitment to a New York where children can grow up safe in their neighborhoods and where opportunity is within reach for every family. I heard a leader who is focused on making New York City affordable — a goal I enthusiastically support,” Hochul wrote.

“I didn’t leave my conversations with Mr. Mamdani aligned with him on every issue,” she added. “But I am confident that he has the courage, urgency and optimism New York City needs to lead it through the challenges of this moment.”

While polls show Mamdani leading in the city over independent nominee and former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the GrayHouse poll shows a significant impact among independents on Hochul’s race if Mamdani is elected.

Exactly 42% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents surveyed align with progressive Democrats such as Mamdani and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, compared with 38% who align with more traditional Democrats like California Rep. Nancy Pelosi. Exactly 47% of independents said they would be less likely to vote for Democrats in 2026 if Mamdani wins.

“This poll is devastating for the worst governor in America. Kathy Hochul’s dismal record of failure and bending the knee to Commie Mamdani is causing her already weak support to crater across New York,” Team Elise Executive Director Alex deGrasse said in a statement.

“Voters want change and a governor who will fight for them, which is why they will resoundingly reject Kathy Hochul for new leadership in Elise Stefanik if she decides to run for governor,” deGrasse added. “What is truly remarkable about this poll is that this is before Elise has even formally announced her campaign. There is a reason why Kathy is running scared.”

The new data comes after a Siena poll released in September showed Hochul with 52% of the voters’ support and Stefanik with 27%. The poll surveyed 802 registered New York voters and came before the governor’s endorsement of Mamdani.

Hochul’s office did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment. 

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