Iran Military and Police Going Unpaid

It’s hard to say whether or not Trump is prepared to restart kinetic action against Iran, or continue his indefinite cease-fire…indefinitely. 

No doubt Trump likes it that way. While I hate that every time a security studies guy or gal talks about military action, they always quote Clausewitz or Sun Tzu, I have to say that Trump is the most Clausewitzian and Sun Tzu-style military leader we have had in a long while. 

By that I mean that Trump understands that war is an extension of politics, and that military success relies as much on deception as good tactics. 

I know that sounds odd, given the nearly universal criticisms of Trump’s Iran war, but if I am reading his strategy correctly, he is continuing his longstanding policy of keeping your enemies guessing and looking in the wrong direction. He did it well in the first strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites, and the military successes of Operation Epic Fury at the outset of the war depended on keeping Iranian leaders off guard. 

That’s why it is so hard to predict Trump’s next moves on the military front, and his Clausewitzian side is what is driving his current strategy of maximum pressure through the blockade and his attempts to negotiate. Non-kinetic politics, with a potential recourse to going kinetic again. 

🚨 JUST NOW: Trump stuns the World announcing Iran’s Military and Police are complaining about not getting paid

HOLD THE LINE pic.twitter.com/PuonBWUtYF

— Big Daddy (@big_daddy_27) April 22, 2026

As I have written several times now, Trump’s pivot to economic strangulation of the Iranian regime is the next step in the war. It even has a name: Operation Economic Fury. The goal is to squeeze the regime where it hurts the most: its economic lifeline. 

Breaking News:

Pakistani has warned Iran’s leadership that window for negotiations is closing and time is running out.

◾ Pakistan military chief Asim Munir is constantly in touch with Iran’s civil and military leadership.

◾ Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif had a meeting with…

— South Asia Index (@SouthAsiaIndex) April 22, 2026

The IRGC controls approximately 30% to 50% or so of the Iranian economy and uses the profits to fund its operations. Much of that is already shut down, and pretty much all of it is at great risk. Everybody in Iran is keenly aware that the clock is ticking, not only because the entire oil industry is in danger of being permanently hurt by the closing of oil wells that will be difficult or impossible to reopen, but also because people need to be paid. 

I can’t say whether the reports of soldiers and policemen going unpaid are true, and I certainly can’t guess whether that means that the IRGC soldiers are suffering equally along with the military and police forces controlled by civilians, but in the short to medium term the distinction will be without a distance. 

You can’t spend money you don’t have. 

As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary…

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 21, 2026

As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports.  In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.

The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.

Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.

We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.

Operation Economic Fury has plenty of room to keep cranking up. The blockade of Iranian ships is only one tool in the toolbox, and there are many more that can be used. 

For instance, there are plenty of kids associated with the Iranian regime living in the West, and they can be sanctioned. Not just kicked out of the country, but, no doubt, most or all of their assets are tied to the regime with which we are at war, and could likely be frozen or seized. 

That would sting, and at a very personal level for regime figures. 

Trump is clearly prepared for a restart of the hostilities, and it is possible that one of the main motivations for the cease-fire was to alter defenses in the region to make them more effective. 

The US military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology at a key air base in Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The deployment involved a Ukrainian command-and-control platform known as Sky Map at Prince Sultan Air Base,…

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 22, 2026

The US military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology at a key air base in Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The deployment involved a Ukrainian command-and-control platform known as Sky Map at Prince Sultan Air Base, the sources said.

The system is used by Ukraine’s military to identify incoming drone threats, including Iranian-developed Shahed drones, and respond by deploying interceptor drones.

All options are on the table, but if people think that Trump’s cease-fire is equivalent to a US defeat, as many argue, they clearly don’t understand that Trump knows war is just politics by other means, and he is obviously just alternating between kinetic and non-kinetic politics. 

One thing to look out for is a response to Iran’s attacks on civilian shipping. While Trump is clearly willing to tolerate Iran’s temporary control over the Strait of Hormuz, I doubt he will tolerate continued attacks on shipping. I can’t predict when or how Trump will fight back on that, but those speedboats are very vulnerable. 

🚨Boom! We just blew up another drug smuggling boat in The Caribbean and took out 3 narco terrorists with it! pic.twitter.com/ZuKdtYNvVT

— Don Keith (@RealDonKeith) April 20, 2026

Ask the narco-terrorists about that. We know how to find them and kill them. And the Gulf would be a target-rich environment. 

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