Russia Bans Diesel Exports as Shadow Fleet Keeps Shrinking

Earlier this week, Ukraine hit Russia’s largest oil refinery with several drones. At the time the extent of the damage was unknown but since then refinery has been shut down for repairs.

Industry sources told Reuters that Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery halted operations after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged key processing units at the 440,000-barrel-per-day facility. The refinery is Russia’s largest gasoline producer, making the timing particularly painful for the Kremlin.

According to the sources, the attack set fire to the CDU-10 crude distillation unit, which accounts for about 38% of the refinery’s processing capacity. A second major unit, CDU-11, was also shut down after damage to supporting infrastructure, although it could reportedly return to service sooner.

The refinery immediately stopped offering gasoline and diesel on Russia’s St. Petersburg commodity exchange.

And obviously this is just one of many similar strikes on Russian refineries.

Russia’s Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery had just restarted operations when Ukrainian drones hit it again. The facility — the fourth-largest oil refinery and the second-largest producer of gasoline in the country — had been struck by Ukraine on June 24, forcing operations to shut down. On July 2, Ukrainian drones paid another visit, forcing the facility to shut down once again…

Even the Moscow Oil Refinery, one of the most heavily defended and important pieces of oil infrastructure in Russia, couldn’t escape. Hundreds of Ukrainian drones penetrated the airspace around the Russian capital on June 16 and June 18 and attacked the facility twice, causing severe damage and knocking the facility out of action until 2027.

The result of all this are the long lines we’re seeing at gas stations across Russia. But the lines are impacting more than casual drivers.

The majority of Russian regions have now implemented some form of fuel rationing; either mandated by the local authorities or implemented by private fuel companies. Critical state services have been disrupted or suspended because of lack of fuel…

Fuel shortages are also affecting Russian troops on the front line. As Dmytro Putiata, a former Ukrainian drone operator and drone warfare specialist, told the Kyiv Independent in June, Ukrainian “middle-strikes” were already forcing some Russian units to reduce diesel use by up to 20% and move supply and command depots farther behind the lines. The situation has likely deteriorated further since then.

Several months ago, Russia banned the export of gasoline. Yesterday, it added the export of diesel to the list of products it can no longer sell for cash.

Speaking at a government meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Russia had “today introduced a ban on diesel fuel exports” to “increase supplies to the domestic market.” He added that Russia would begin importing petroleum products in July and expand production by using lower-environmental-grade fuels as part of a package aimed at easing domestic shortages.

The ban is only intended to be short term, but given how things have gone the last month, I think Russia is being optimistic that the ban will expire in a month or so. It’s more likely that ban will be extended as additional strikes cut into production.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian shadow fleet tankers have continued. After hitting 10 ships earlier this week, Ukraine hit another 9 early Wednesday morning.

Magyar’s update: the tanker hunt continues.

🔥 The USF Birds struck 9 more russian shadow fleet tankers during the night of July 8 in the Sea of Azov.

🌶️ 21 vessels were hit over the past 72 hours: 19 shadow fleet tankers, 1 cargo ship, and 1 ferry in Kerch.

The operation was… pic.twitter.com/nWhJTU8vtQ

— 414 Magyar’s Birds (@414magyarbirds) July 8, 2026

That brought the total to 19 tankers. Last night they hit another 14 vessels.

Magyar: Shadow fleet massacre continues.

🔥 14 vessels hit overnight on July 9 in the Sea of Azov by the Birds of the Unmanned Systems Forces.

The worms’ shadow fleet keeps shrinking: 35 tankers, cargo ships, and auxiliary vessels hit within the past 96 hours.
(Full timeline… pic.twitter.com/PNwRY7cg0F

— 414 Magyar’s Birds (@414magyarbirds) July 9, 2026

And of course there were other strikes taking place. This one by a drone at sea.

🔥🚢Ukraine’s Security Service struck the Russian shadow-fleet tanker Blue in the Black Sea using a Sea Baby naval drone.

The sanctioned Suezmax-class tanker was hit near occupied Yalta and suffered serious damage to its stern. https://t.co/H1mZovTax4 pic.twitter.com/f2RFVnwJut

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 8, 2026

Meanwhile on land, a small fuel depot between Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Tver oil depot is a relatively small fuel terminal used for storage and transshipment of light petroleum products. Main characteristics:

* Owner — JSC RN-Tver (a Rosneft structure).
* Tank park — 8 tanks with a total volume of about 6,400 m³.
* Main products:
* AI-92 gasoline;… pic.twitter.com/awbfr416V0

— big ben (@alternative_war) July 9, 2026

* It is not a strategic oil refinery. It is not a refinery, but a logistics hub.

* It supplies fuel to Tver and part of the Tver region, and also participates in regional fuel distribution.

* Due to its location between Moscow and St. Petersburg, it can be used as an intermediate warehouse for supplying the civilian and partly state sectors.

It’s not going well for Russians.

But in Stavropol Krai, they didn’t get that chance… 🥲

A picture-perfect scene: local residents, standing in line for gasoline, watch a drone flying to attack their oil depot.

July 2026 https://t.co/rxGlpRIEmQ pic.twitter.com/5JIhZp6OcB

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 9, 2026

Russia has some fuel reserves to carry it through the summer (not enough obviously, hence the long lines) but what happens after the reserves are tapped and gone?

Russian “Z-bloggers” ask inconvenient questions:

“We have reserves until September. And then what? What will happen in autumn, late autumn, and winter? People are worried.” pic.twitter.com/NBmrCwSqPT

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 9, 2026

Both Rubio and Trump seem to be onboard with Ukraine’s strategy.

Secretary Rubio:

I think [Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russia] is one of the dynamics that’s changed in this war over the last few months. Russians are finding it more difficult to defend their own airspace.

We hope that it’s going to create the space now to negotiate the end… https://t.co/kJ0mR4bniM pic.twitter.com/6MftJMTVqR

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 8, 2026

Trump indicated this week that he plans to arrange for Ukraine to be able to build Patriot missiles domestically.

…the tone of their meeting on Wednesday was relaxed, with Mr. Zelensky sitting impassively as Mr. Trump spoke at length about a number of subjects, including Mr. Putin. Then Mr. Trump said the United States would give Ukraine a license to make Patriots.

“That’s really cool, right?” Mr. Trump said. “This way you can’t complain that we’re not giving them enough.”

So what prompted Mr. Trump’s apparent shift toward support for Ukraine? Analysts said it might have been recent headlines about Kyiv’s successful mid- and long-range strike campaigns against Russian forces.

“If I understand President Trump’s logic, he always wants to be on the winning side,” said Viktor Shlinchak, the head of the Institute of World Policy, a research group. “And right now, it does not look like Ukraine is losing.”

He said he interpreted Mr. Trump’s announcement about Patriot licenses primarily as a political signal to the Kremlin.

It really did seem for a while that Russia was invulnerable but that’s clearly not the case anymore. So now the pressure is on Putin to come to the table, for the first time in a long time. I think it’s clear that President Zelensky can feel the difference.

President Trump: Would you go to Moscow?

President Zelenskyy: It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there. It’s dangerous. https://t.co/kJ0mR4bniM pic.twitter.com/s7Mp8PpTa2

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 8, 2026

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