Signs That Things Could Be Ramping Up in Cuba

It’s not a done deal but the situation in Iran appears to be heading for an off-ramp just as the situation in Cuba might be gearing up. Here’s what we know at the moment. First, U.S. officials quietly visited Cuba last Friday to directly make the case for reform.

The meeting last Friday itself marks a diplomatic breakthrough because it’s the first time a U.S. government plane has touched down since President Obama visited a decade ago in an effort for rapprochement…

A senior State Department official told Axios that multiple meetings took place but would not name the participants, except for one —Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Castro…

The U.S. officials impressed on the Castro regime that “the Cuban economy is in free fall and that the island’s ruling elites have a small window to make key U.S. backed reforms before circumstances irreversibly worsen,” the official told Axios.

Who was present for this meeting on the U.S. side remains unclear but we know that the representative on the Cuban side was Raul Castro’s grandson, Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. The younger Castro is know as “The Crab” because he was born with six fingers on one hand. Sec. of State Rubio was not there because he was in Paris that day.

Raul Castro is 94-years-old but is still seen as the real power broker in Cuba. He and his grandson have a tight bond. In fact, “The Crab” was for many years the leader of his grandfather’s security detail.

Rodríguez Castro has the total trust of his grandfather, said a former U.S. official who was introduced to the grandson 10 years ago by a senior Cuban intelligence officer as the future of the family.

As a youth, Rodríguez Castro spent much of his time at his grandfather’s house enthralled with the macho atmosphere of guns and bodybuilding prevalent in Raúl Castro’s security detail. He received a handgun for his 15th birthday, a relative said. He attended military school and joined his grandfather’s security detail even as he studied accounting and finance at the University of Havana.

He soon became his grandfather’s shadow, the gatekeeper who holds Raúl Castro’s telephone, passing or not passing messages and documents along. He can dole out favors, such as access to a vacation beach house or the green light to open a nightclub, relatives said. He also takes part in business negotiations for the government, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Rodríguez Castro is known as a notorious bon vivant. He has popped up periodically in videos aired in Miami showing him relaxing with friends on a yacht. One video showed him at a nightclub, dancing on a stage wearing a New York Yankees shirt with the name “Cangrejo”—Spanish for “Crab”—on the back and dousing himself with a bottle of water.

Apparently cut out of these negotiations, the current President of Cuba has been claiming that Cuba is ready to fight to the death in the case of a U.S. invasion. But behind the scenes, things are proceeding somewhat differently. The U.S. is offering to set up internet access for the island using Starlink terminals. It is also offering sanctions relief in exchange for the release of political prisoners and a promise to move toward free elections in the future. The U.S. is also demanding that foreign intelligence services from Russia and China be kicked off the island.

After the meeting last week, there have been several more developments which suggest a deal has not been reached yet. First, “The Crab” attempted to bypass the State Department and Marco Rubio by delivering a letter directly to President Trump.

In an unusual attempt to get President Trump’s ear, the grandson of Cuban leader Raúl Castro tapped a wealthy Havana entrepreneur to try to personally deliver a letter to the White House last week outside of regular diplomatic channels, said a U.S. official and a former U.S. official.

The letter was formatted similarly to a diplomatic note and carried an official Cuban seal, the current U.S. official said. The attempted back-channel message to Trump proposed economic and investment agreements as well as sanctions relief, and warned that the Cuban regime was preparing for a U.S. incursion, the U.S. official said.

But the courier—Roberto Carlos Chamizo González, 37 years old, a Cuban businessman involved in private, high-end auto rentals and luxury tourism—was sent back to Havana from Miami after a Customs and Border Protection agent stopped him at the airport, obtaining the letter and ending the effort, the U.S. official said.

What was in the letter? That’s not clear but the WSJ described it as an attempt to make a deal with Trump which would leave the communist regime in place. The Cubans correctly predicted that this offer would hold no appeal for Rubio who is of Cuban descent and wants to see the regime go.

Also yesterday, another story leaked. This one said the U.S. military was preparing options for a military operations in Cuba. 

Military planning for a possible Pentagon-led operation in Cuba is quietly ramping up, in case President Donald Trump gives an order to intervene there, USA TODAY has learned.

Two sources familiar with the order spoke to USA TODAY on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak to media.

Was this leak meant as a response to the private letter? It’s unclear, but the effect would seem to be to increase pressure on Cuba to offer something more than endless communism.

Cuba’s situation remains pretty dire, despite a few oil shipments sent from Russia. The moment this seems to be tipping into a humanitarian crisis is probably going to be the moment Trump makes a decision without input from the Cuban dictatorship. If they want a say in the outcome, they should act quickly.