Support for California’s Wealth Tax Is Shrinking

The California wealth tax will be on the ballot this November. In order to pass it, supporters need to get one vote more than 50 percent of the total votes cast. And for a while it appeared they were cruising to victory with some polls showing the tax running at +19. However, more recent polls show the race is tightening.

A proposed tax on billionaires is faltering in California, according to a new poll by POLITICO and its partners, with public support dropping off as opponents launch a massive advertising blitz.

Fewer than half of likely voters (45%) said they would vote for the tax on the assets of California’s wealthiest residents, while 43% said they would vote against it and 12% were undecided, according to the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. That’s down from February, when proponents of the measure, Proposition 40, held an edge.

“The trend in Prop 40 is certainly going against Prop 40,” said Jack Citrin, a University of California, Berkeley, political science professor and co-director of the poll. “From a historical point of view, you’d think the no side are gaining and would potentially win.”

Another recent poll was better for the tax but still well below the edge shown in earlier polls.

Proposition 40, which was proposed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West as a way to fill massive funding gaps triggered by President Donald Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, has the support of 52% of likely voters in the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group in San Francisco. It found 42% of likely voters said they’d oppose the measure and 2% were undecided.

But even the news in this poll doesn’t look so good when you look at the competing measures that are on the ballot. In California, if the features of two different ballot initiatives conflict, only the one which passes by the largest amount goes into effect. The other ones are effectively locked out, even if they passed. With this in mind, opponents of the tax have put two rival initiatives on the ballot.

Prop. 41, which the poll found was supported by 51% of likely voters, would require the state auditor to review proposed special taxes before they’re placed on the ballot and invalidate taxes that don’t comply with the state spending limit. Prop. 42 would prohibit new state personal property taxes, including those on retirement accounts and assets. It had support from 54% of likely voters in the PPIC poll. Both measures are supported by Building a Better California, a new group with major funding from Google co-founder Sergey Brin.

So Prop 41 is within one point of Prop 40, which is basically a tie. Prop 42 is leading Prop. 40 by two points. If either of those two get a higher vote tally, then Prop 40 is dead even if it passes. So at this point it looks like a tossup.

But there’s also reason to think the numbers for Prop 40 will continue to sink. That’s because Sergey Brin has put a lot of his own money behind defeating it while the union pushing the tax has no war chest at all. The campaign to defeat 40 has only just gotten underway but already there are signs it is working.

A resounding 83% of likely voters said they had heard some or a great deal about the measure — a remarkably high number given that the main opposition committee only launched its first ad in late August. Likely voters who said they’d heard a “great deal” were opposed by a 57-38 margin.

“The campaign is just starting, and roughly a gazillion dollars are going to be spent on it,” said Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, whose firm fielded the poll. “The fact that the people who are the most tuned in are the most opposed points to significant vulnerability that I think the yes side has.”

Not unlike Kamala Harris, the more people hear about the wealth tax, the less they like it. And they are going to hear a lot about it between now and November. In particular, it seems that voters are turned off when they hear that this might not be a one-time tax as the proponents have promised. A recent anti-Prop 40 ad states, “when the money runs out, Sacramento will be back with yet another tax.” 

And that’s not a political trick; it’s absolutely true. There is no plan for what to do when the first glut of other people’s money runs out. Some of the proponents have already hinted that a repeat of the tax might be the next plan. So you either commit to driving all the billionaires out of the state or you should stop this now before the state gets used to spending money it does not have.

The wealth tax isn’t dead yet but there are signs it could be headed for defeat. That’s probably the best thing that could happen to this state, even if two-thirds of Democrats are too dumb to know it.

Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has been infected by socialism, and it’s spreading FAST. Democrats are claiming there’s nothing to worry about, but we know the truth.

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