Old and busted: Never get into a land war in Asia! New hotness: Never get into a troll war with Donald Trump!
And perhaps best of all: Never get into a blockade war in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Memorandum of Understanding officially expired yesterday, a mere formality. Iran never abided by it, and after a few weeks of attempting to keep it on life support, Trump largely ignored it. Turkey and Pakistan have tried to get Trump and the IRGC back to negotiations, but Iran has instead prepared for an escalation while Trump has suggested that the US might seize the Strait of Hormuz outright.
This morning, he posted this to Truth Social – jokingly? Perhaps:
Trump: pic.twitter.com/Y3klA8tdEC
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 18, 2026
This may have been in response to an apparent IRGC attack on a ship attempting to pass through international waters in the Strait. The attack killed at least one crew member and damaged the engine room, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center. The Omani Coast Guard is attempting a rescue, according to UKMTO and Fox News, but the fate of the vessel is uncertain at the moment.
Iran’s proxy terrorist army in Yemen has also threatened to expand the war. The Wall Street Journal reports that Houthis have escalated attacks in the Red Sea, threatening the remaining distribution channel for Middle East oil shipments:
Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country’s Red Sea coast, shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint.
The militant group’s recent missile and drone attacks forced the closure of the port of Mokha, a key logistics hub for civilian shipping and for anti-Houthi forces operating along the coast, Yemeni authorities said.
The escalating fighting in Yemen, the worst in the country in years, shows how the war in Iran is fueling instability throughout the Middle East and heightening the risk of further disruption to global energy flows after months in which Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the worst oil supply disruption in recent history.
“This is the most significant escalation in quite a few years, maybe since 2020,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with New America, a policy institute in Washington.
Almost certainly not coincidentally, the intensity of fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iran’s other proxy army increased in the last few days:
Stephane Dujarric, the spokesperson for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, on Monday reported an “alarming and concerning intensification of violence” in southern Lebanon over the weekend.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — UNIFIL — recorded what Dujarric said were “intense kinetic activities across its area of operations over the weekend,” including several Israel Defense Forces airstrikes, helicopter attacks, indirect fire and maritime actions in Lebanese waters.
“Meanwhile, UNIFIL peacekeepers discovered and neutralised several unexploded ordnance. Peacekeepers also continued to encounter restrictions on their freedom of movement and incidents of aggressive behavior,” Dujarric said.
UNIFIL peacekeepers have spent at least 20 years being worse than useless in southern Lebanon. The UN posted them to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ordered Hezbollah to retreat fully from the Bekaa Valley and the area south of the Litani River. Instead, they stood by without taking any action while Hezbollah and Iran dug themselves into the sub-Litani region and launched attacks on Israel, including their decision to join the war Hamas started on October 7.
Iran clearly wants to light the region on fire to escape the American blockade. They can do a lot of damage in that effort, and likely will keep escalating as they grow more desperate about the blockade and sanctions siege.
Will it work? The Trump administration insists that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz and that oil is getting shipped, although acknowledging that it is still a conflict zone. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that the US Navy escorts have been effective and that the US planned to play the “long game” to break the IRGC regime:
Wright said that trackers of the ships going through the Strait have been turned off due to the conflict, meaning public data does not accurately reflect the true number of vessels transiting the Strait. He asserted that 30 ships went through the waterway on Sunday and that “millions” of barrels have been moving through per day.
Wright said that U.S. military escorts of commercial shipping demonstrate the control the U.S. has over traffic in the strait, but did not acknowledge the Iranian threat that necessitates those escorts and that continues to keep traffic low.
Wright was pressed over the fact that these numbers of ships moving through the Strait are still lower than pre-war levels. He said he couldn’t predict the future when asked when he thinks those traffic levels would rise.
“We’re fixing a 47-year-old problem with this government in Iran and the threat of nuclear weapons, but it does cause some disruption in the short term. President Trump’s policies have made us ready for that disruption,” Wright said.
Is this accurate? Oil prices have begun ticking back up, but not in any rush either. Both regular crude ($85 this morning) and Brent crude ($91 this morning) are above pre-war prices, but well below wartime highs that ran $25–30 higher per barrel for a couple of brief moments. Investors have concerns about supply, but they are not hitting the panic button as they did earlier. American export production has increased enough to keep a strategic influence on global market prices, and that undercuts the leverage on which Iran counts to win a game of economic chicken in the Strait.
In that sense, anyway, all their Hormuz are belong to us. Do we have the strategic patience to keep it long enough to force the IRGC to concede or collapse? All our base may not belong to patience that long. Stay tuned.
For an explanation of the headline and the previous paragraph, here’s Know Your Meme on the reference. I’m doing my part.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.
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