The deuce you say. Who could have known?
Anyone who ever dealt with the IRGC or its proxies – that’s who. Perhaps Donald Trump should chat with Benjamin Netanyahu about the reliability of Iranian-linked negotiators. The West has been forcing Israel into useless agreements with them for decades.
Less than 24 hours after calling off Bridge and Power Day again and claiming that Iran now wants a deal, Trump returned to Truth Social to complain that he’d been misled. Again.
Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous! They ask for a meeting, some would say “beg,” talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they’re only dealing with “Oman.” They then go on to give their usual blather in saying, the Strait of Hormuz will be operated powerfully by them, when it is already completely controlled by the United States Navy and our “Blockade” or, as some say, “The United States Wall of Steel!” Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished. Whether Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused, for decades. It is very simple, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
The Wall Street Journal reported shortly afterward that Lucy had moved the football. Again.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected Trump’s suggestion that talks were under way, noting that Iran hadn’t sent any delegations or negotiators to take part in any discussions. He said all of Iran’s negotiators were still in the country, with the exception of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was visiting a religious site in Iraq. …
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did, however, acknowledge that Iran was continuing talks with Oman on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which has been at the center of the stalemate between Washington and Tehran. The discussions between the two countries bordering the strait have grown more significant in recent days, with both Oman and Iran noting there had been some progress.
Iranian state media earlier cited Araghchi, the foreign minister, as saying that discussions on creating a mechanism for ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz were “nearing completion and in their final stages.”
John Hinderaker predicted as much last night at Power Line:
I suppose it is possible that this time the IRGC really means it, and peace is at hand. But in all probability, this allegedly near approach to a meaningful agreement will go the way of the others. The standoff, in other words, will continue.
Rasmussen finds that by 54% to 35%, likely voters think going to war with Iran was the wrong decision. I don’t agree; it seems to me that to the extent Iran’s military capacity and ability to impact the world economy have been surprising, it means it is a good thing we engaged the IRGC and degraded its military strength now. In ten or even five years, it might have been too late.
True. And while we wonder whether Trump really intends to follow through on the war if the IRGC keeps reneging on negotiations, we have to keep that perspective in mind. It will take decades for Iran to reconstitute its military-industrial capacity, if indeed it ever does. Military juntas have a spotty record of economic and military recovery from dire situations as Iran now faces, without a blue-water navy, an air force, or much left in the ability to rebuild either. At the moment, it can’t even buy those assets, thanks to a blockade on oil sales and massive financial sanctions imposed by the US. Even its pursuit of a nuclear weapon may not be entirely derailed, but it has been set back several years with this war and last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer.
The problem, however, is that Iran still has some leverage left in the Strait of Hormuz, and with it some ability to conduct terror attacks on the world economy. The talks that have taken place in this latest pause clearly show Iran’s intent to keep that leverage in place for the long term:
Iran has been in discussions with Oman and other regional mediators about the creation of a new temporary route through the Strait of Hormuz that would allow commercial shipping to resume, mediators told The Wall Street Journal. According to the proposal from the mediators, Persian Gulf-bound ships will enter via Iranian waters and exit via Omani waters without paying fees, they said.
Iranian diplomats initially reacted positively to the latest proposal, but later demanded guarantees that attacks on Iran wouldn’t resume and that sanctions on its oil would be lifted, the mediators said.
This sets a bad precedent for the security of international waterways. The Strait of Hormuz is fully accessible via international waters, and thus there is no need to route shipping through Iranian or Omanian waters. Allowing that kind of precedent will incentivize others to control shipping through passages near their own military strength, and a century of trade will fall prey to piracy and strong-arm extortion.
This conflict should end with the principles of free passage through international waters intact. If Trump wants to call off the rest of the war, he should make the case that we are now better off than the status quo ante while reserving the ability to protect free trade in the Strait of Hormuz and anywhere else. There’s a case to be made for that argument, a much better case than for the argument that the IRGC regime’s perfidy and duplicitousness comes as some sort of shock at this point.
That argument should win an award. Let’s hope Trump stops making it.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.
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