Trump to Iran: Get Serious Or Drown In Your Own Crude

Has Donald Trump run out of patience? Or has Iran? It depends on whether one talks about strategic or tactical patience – and even then, whether Iran actually has either or just a set of unshakeable delusions.

Earlier today, Reuters reported that Trump has reviewed the Iranian proposal to sell him the same missing Persian rug twice, and has rejected it. As noted yesterday, Iran’s latest proposal is the same as the current ceasefire agreement that Iran has refused to honor in the first place. They want to open the Strait of Hormuz to all, and push off talks on nuclear weapons until some point in the indeterminate future. 

Trump already responded briefly yesterday by refusing to send negotiators on this basis. His position hardened even further, Reuters notes:

U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month war, a U.S. official said, dampening hopes for resolution of a conflict that has disrupted energy supplies, fuelled inflation, and killed thousands.

Iran’s latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme until the war, on hold following a ceasefire announced earlier this month, is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved. 

Trump is unhappy with Iran’s proposal as he wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset, said a U.S. official briefed on the president’s Monday meeting with his advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump got more direct about it behind closed doors, reports Axios’ Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo. Trump wants to get a deal done that will extract the regime’s stores of highly enriched uranium, but their refusal to negotiate on that point has pushed him to the end of his tactical patience. He is reviewing his options, ranging from standing pat on the blockade to the shock-and-awe campaign he threatened that prompted the first ceasefire agreement:

Zoom in: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his “maximum pressure” financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.

• “All [Iran’s leaders] understand is bombs,” Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.
• “I would describe him as frustrated but realistic,” the adviser said. “He doesn’t want to use force. But he’s not backing down.”

Inside the room: Some of Trump’s senior advisers want him to maintain the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now — and impose more economic sanctions to pressure the Iranian regime — before going back to bombing. …

The other side: Trump also is consulting with hawks outside the administration, including Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some kind of military action to try to break the current deadlock.

Ravid and Caputo call this a “cold war,” which is hardly applicable. The US and Iran’s cold-war phase lasted 46-plus years, with Iran continually conducting provocations and the US sticking mainly to “proportional” responses. This has been a hot war since February 28, and it remains so. Naval blockades and sieges are “hot war” tactics and strategies, even if they are less than satisfying to those observing on a moment-to-moment basis. And in this case, the blockade and siege is doing more damage to the regime than the previous bombings did, in the long-term strategic sense. 

The media has finally begun to take some notice of the ramifications of the blockade for the regime. Iran’s IRGC risks generational damage to its oil industry unless the regime can ship its crude and get empty tankers back to refill:

Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked.

With oil backing up at home, Iran is reviving derelict sites known as “junk storage,” using improvised containers and trying to ship crude by rail to China. The unusual steps are aimed at delaying an infrastructure crisis and blunting Washington’s leverage in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.

The war between the U.S. and Iran has turned into a race to see whether Tehran’s oil industry or global energy consumers crack first. Every barrel that can’t leave the country through normal export channels must go somewhere: into a tank, onto a ship, into an improvised storage site—or remain underground. …

Shutting production abruptly can damage older oil fields, especially those with low pressure or fragile geology. Around half of Iran’s oil fields have low pressure, leaving them vulnerable to longer-term production losses after stoppages, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy.

To be sure, not every production stoppage destroys a well, and Iranian engineers have experience managing production under sanctions. But Iran’s old equipment and mature fields make forced production cuts particularly risky, Iranian oil officials have said[.]

Trump suggested on Sunday that Iran had three days left before having to shut down these oil fields. Analysts told the WSJ that Iran may be able to eke out enough junk storage to last a couple of more weeks. The new bid to sell the same Persian rug twice probably indicates that the reality is closer to Trump’s estimate. (IRGC media mouthpiece Tasnim claimed two months of room, but YMMV.) 

That’s significant strategic leverage, and Trump seems inclined to stand pat on the blockade at the moment. He wants a successful negotiation and likely hopes that this leverage will eventually produce a change in leadership. Trump hinted at that on Truth Social this morning:

Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump clearly wants to force power to change hands in Tehran in order to get the “nuclear dust” out as peacefully as possible. He can afford to wait out the regime if he chooses, at least militarily. Politically here at home may present more limitations in time and options. And it does sound as though Trump has come to the conclusion that the only language the IRGC dead-enders understand is bombs, so perhaps his path of least resistance is Shock and Awe II … or eleven, as Ilhan Omar would say.