The United Nations-backed climate panel has walked back one of its “worst-case scenario” greenhouse gas emissions projections after a new report found that the scenario “have become implausible.”
The scenario, known as RCP8.5, predicted that humanity would increase its use of fossil fuels and take no meaningful action to mitigate climate change.
The projection had been used for years to estimate possible future climate conditions, including major sea-level rise, global crop failures, and rapid melting of polar ice, as reported by Townhall.
The change drew attention from critics of climate alarmism, who argued that the scenario had been used to justify costly government policies in the United States and Europe.
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Supporters of the shift said the scenario became less likely because of mitigation efforts already in place.
President Donald Trump responded to the development in a post on Truth Social, criticizing Democrats and climate activists for relying on the projections.
“GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that ‘Climate Change’ is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” Trump wrote.
“For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs. Unlike the Dumocrats, who use Climate Alarmism nonsense to push their GREEN NEW SCAM, my Administration will always be based on TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
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The White House also shared the president’s statement on X, posting, “GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that “Climate Change” is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” – President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸”
“GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that “Climate Change” is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” – President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/qd9EulmjKh
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 16, 2026
The report’s findings renewed debate over climate policy, energy costs, and whether governments should rely on strict mandates or pursue growth-driven innovation.
Conservatives have argued that even if climate change projections are accepted, the better response is to rely on human ingenuity, infrastructure, and technology rather than policies that weaken economies or force reliance on foreign fossil fuels.
The debate has also included criticism of rules such as New York City’s Local Law 97, described in the source material as a high-cost mandate to remove gas- and oil-fired boilers in local apartment buildings and install electric heat pumps.
The issue has been a recurring argument among free-market advocates who say Western economies should continue developing technology that either makes fossil fuel alternatives more effective or reduces the amount of fossil fuel needed to power modern life.
Ben Shapiro made that argument during a 2021 speech, saying capitalism and economic growth remain central to adaptation.
“One of the great ways that you adapt is through capitalism, because one of the reasons that you are going to have a better world by 2100 than you have today, despite climate change, is that the economy is going to continue to grow by virtually every estimate,” Shapiro said.
Shapiro also cited Lauren Cass of the Manhattan Institute and Nordhaus’ model while arguing against dismantling the carbon-based economy in favor of technologies he said were not yet competitive on a per-capita level.
Lauren Cass of the Manhattan Institute points out, regarding Nordhaus’ model, by 2100, regardless of climate change, the world, the entire world, is more than six times wealthier than in 2015, because we keep getting better at doing stuff.
Human beings get better at doing stuff. So should we build more seawalls? Absolutely. Should we take mitigating measures? Of course. And does that involve infrastructure building?
Sure. But if we are talking about completely destroying the entire carbon-based economy in favor of unproven technologies that do not compete on a per capita level, people don’t know what they’re talking about.
The panel’s retreat from the “worst-case scenario” comes after years of climate projections shaping debates over energy policy, emissions standards, mandates, and public spending.
Critics said the change should push policymakers to reconsider policies based on projections now described as unlikely.
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