I have written a couple of times recently about the current state of the war between Ukraine and Russia, but until today, Vladimir Putin has been relatively silent about the changing realities on the battlefield and, most especially, in Russia.
I have argued that the tactical battlefield is in something akin to a stalemate, with many deaths and very few gains, but that the most important action is taking place through strategic strikes in Russia and Ukraine.
There are conflicting reports about gains or losses of territory for Russia and/or Ukraine this year, but for all the casualties—between 1 and 2,000 a day for Russia—the total amount of territory that changed hands amounts to 10-20 square miles of already-devastated territory.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2026: https://t.co/ywR8Gn2y4Q pic.twitter.com/MNkJ4KDhZW
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 23, 2026
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted another strike near Moscow City on the night of June 21 to 22 — the third strike against Russia’s capital area in the past week.
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian authorities have reportedly been trying to strengthen air defenses covering Moscow City in recent weeks, including possibly at the expense of frontline areas.
Ukraine continues to expand the intensity and range of its intermediate- and long-range strike campaign.
Ukrainian strikes continue to exacerbate Russian gasoline shortages and inhibit Russian logistics to occupied Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial enterprise that produces components for Russian cruise missiles and air defenses in Voronezh Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.
Russian forces launched one missile and 88 drones against Ukraine on the night of June 21 to 22.
Russia’s Spring Offensive has been a bust, in other words. Russia suffers somewhere between 3 and 4 casualties for every Ukrainian they take out of the fight, and even with a larger population, that is simply not sustainable indefinitely.
BREAKING:
Ukraine has struck a large Russians weapons depot in Kirovskoye, Crimea.
Secondary explosions can be seen for miles pic.twitter.com/492VsPWMN1
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2026
But this war will not be won primarily on the battlefield, if it can be won at all by either side in any meaningful sense. What wins wars, unless you can march into a nation’s capital and completely defeat an army, is breaking the will of the enemy, and right now Ukraine is in a better position to do that if it can be done.
‘It is hardly surprising to be told that political leaders often want to receive information that fits their predilections. But this is a different scenario.’
Robert Service discusses how Putin can no longer hide the catastrophic costs of his failing war from Russians ⤵️… pic.twitter.com/LtYpl2obFH
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 22, 2026
That’s because Russia, which has been striking the Ukrainian capital since the beginning of the war, has not diminished the will of Ukrainians to fight in the least, while Russia is now, finally, imposing massive costs on Russia by attacking its military industrial base, its oil processing, production, and export facilities, and literally making it rain oil in the skies of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
It is no longer possible to get fuel in Crimea, but Crimea is not the center of power in Russia. Moscow and St Petersburg are, and those are no longer safe from attack, or should I say frequent attack.
JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺 Putin has accused the United States and Europe of directly enabling the devastating missile strike that obliterated a key Russian semiconductor plant in Voronezh.
According to Putin, Western nations provided satellite intelligence, targeting data, and navigation… pic.twitter.com/lr1yeIdXuQ
— War Radar (@War_Radar2) June 23, 2026
JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺 Putin has accused the United States and Europe of directly enabling the devastating missile strike that obliterated a key Russian semiconductor plant in Voronezh.
According to Putin, Western nations provided satellite intelligence, targeting data, and navigation support for the long range attack, warning that such involvement could be viewed as NATO’s direct entry into the war.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Russian semiconductor facility, which allegedly produces components used in missile systems, was struck by AGM-188 “Rusty Dagger” cruise missiles.
Putin is back to blustering again, but the underlying reality is that he is being forced to strip battlefield air defense assets to protect Moscow, which in turn makes the front line weaker and any minimal progress even more difficult to make.
If it’s true that Ukraine is now using AGM-188s to attack inside Russia, that is a very interesting development, and a signal to Putin that President Trump is getting tired of Russia’s intransigence in negotiations.
Putin sours on Trump over his latest Ukraine shift https://t.co/XmlzhbCBAR
— Financial Times (@FT) June 23, 2026
Putin is now back to his “NATO is attacking me” shtick, but it rings hollow for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that Russia was supporting Iran during Epic Fury and beyond. Ukraine may be using American weapons, but Iran used Russian and Chinese, and nobody talked about nuking Russia.
It’s hard to know whether to take seriously the rumors that Putin’s military and the oligarchs are pressuring Putin to resolve the Ukraine War as soon as possible, but there is no doubt that many of them would like him to. Russia has fuel shortages within its own borders and having to import gas and diesel from abroad, and it can’t keep losing refining capacity indefinitely.
JUST IN.. THE GAUNTLET IS THROWN | 🚨
Putin drops a massive peace ultimatum, effectively telling NATO and Ukraine: “Accept the new borders, or we keep marching.”
Here is what the Russian President just laid out:
– Russia is ready for talks based on the 2022 Istanbul… pic.twitter.com/LoL17wFFaw
— RussiaNews 🇷🇺 (@mog_russEN) June 23, 2026
JUST IN.. THE GAUNTLET IS THROWN | 🚨
Putin drops a massive peace ultimatum, effectively telling NATO and Ukraine: “Accept the new borders, or we keep marching.”
Here is what the Russian President just laid out:
– Russia is ready for talks based on the 2022 Istanbul draft—which Kiev’s delegation already signed and accepted before the West blocked it.
– Putin explicitly demands that any future deal must recognize “the realities on the ground today.” No going back.
– Moscow is fully prepared for the long haul. “We will move forward resolutely in all directions, backed by our economic stability and newly reinforced Armed Forces.”
The Kremlin effectively tells Kiev and NATO: Accept the new borders, or the map keeps changing. 🇷🇺
It’s clear that Ukraine and Zelensky are not inclined to give in to Putin’s demands, although they would in principle like a negotiated solution to the war sooner rather than later. They believe they have the upper hand at the moment, and a strong case can be made that they do.
PETRAEUS: Ukrainians are outnumbered in terms of personnel and economy, yet they’re taking fight to Russia on front lines, on Black Sea, in depths of battlefield, and inside Russia itself.
Eventually, Putin will look in the mirror and say, “I’m not only failing to achieve my… pic.twitter.com/tDhmuMeha3
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) June 23, 2026
PETRAEUS: Ukrainians are outnumbered in terms of personnel and economy, yet they’re taking fight to Russia on front lines, on Black Sea, in depths of battlefield, and inside Russia itself.
Eventually, Putin will look in the mirror and say, “I’m not only failing to achieve my objectives, I’m actually going backwards, and casualties are so high that we can’t sustain this.”
Again, Russians have taken more killed and wounded than United States suffered in all of World War II.
Russia is far from collapsing on the battlefield or politically, but the costs of the war to Russia can no longer be ignored by the average Russian, or to the oligarchs who form the real base of Putin’s support.
Putin built his political power by creating an aura of invulnerability, and that has been seriously dinged in recent months. He can impose costs on Ukraine by hitting apartment blocks, which is not nothing, but Zelensky can hit Putin where it hurts much more deeply: his economy and military production.
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