When Housing and Immigration Collide

There was a pretty meaningful number that came out during the week of the Great American State Fair, and I didn’t get to it with everything else going on. But with today’s great discussion in the comments over on the earlier H1B visa post, it seemed like a perfect opportunity to discuss what immigration pressures have done to housing and what the Trump administration is doing about it. It seems like a lot of folks don’t realize that the Trump folks and Congress really are moving and have been.

In July of 2025. the Office of Policy Development and Research published a paper by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) called:

Worst Case Housing Needs: 2025 Report to Congress

It’s a bi-annual report on the status of housing for low-income families. And last year’s report had some interesting factoids in it from data that has been accrued through 2023 housing surveys.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is pleased to transmit to the U.S. Congress its 20th report on Worst Case Housing Needs. This biennial report provides data on and analysis of critical problems facing low-income renting families. It primarily draws on research from the 2023 American Housing Survey (AHS), which is funded by HUD and conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The AHS has taken place every 2 years since 1973, and it remains a vital source of national data on housing markets, conditions, and dynamics.

…One key cause of elevated worst case needs is immigration. Between 2021 and 2024, the foreign-born population of the United States increased by more than 6 million—the largest such increase over such a short period in American history. The foreign-born population now stands at more than 53 million individuals, making up the highest share of the American population in history. This immigration-driven increase in households has contributed to a significant increase in housing demand, thus driving up housing prices. In fact, in some markets, immigration has accounted for nearly all of the increase in housing demand in recent years.

This year’s report shows two realities. The first is that economic growth has been insufficient to lift the wages of low-income renting families high enough to make rent affordable. The second is that national macroeconomic policies, such as record immigration, have combined to drive sustained high rental demand, which has continued to place upward pressure on rent prices.

As a result, in 2023, only 59 affordable units were available per 100 very low-income renter households, and only 38 units were available per 100 extremely low-income renter households. Worst case needs were common in every region and metropolitan category across the nation but most prevalent in the West, the South, and urban suburbs.

Well, this was something we all had our suspicions about, were chided over by Democrats for being racists or worse, and now here was proof that the unfettered immigration had indeed exacerbated an already tight housing market, rental and sales.

But it didn’t quantify to what extent.

That answer came in this year’s Dallas Federal Reserve worksheet. Researchers for the Fed in Texas had had a chance to parse even more data – down to a granular level in some instances – and build a more complete picture of the extent of the damage caused by Biden’s human flood coming across the border.

From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, without significant declines in local wages. These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. Lastly, we find that UIWF reduced labor income per capita, consistent with downward wage composition of the local workforce, and strongly reduced government transfers. These findings should help inform policy debates surrounding how unauthorized immigrant labor supply impacts local labor and housing markets as well as public finances.

And what the preliminary draft of the report revealed was that the immigration influx, while it did boost employment numbers, was responsible for 30% of the rise in home prices and 20% of the eventual increase in rental prices.

A new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper estimates the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration boosted employment while causing 30% of home price increases and 20% of rent increases.

The paper combined immigration court records with government administrative data to create the first ever calculation of how a wave of 7 million illegal immigrants from 2021 through 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.

…”The total weighted-mean increases in house prices and rents over this period were 22.4% and 22.6%, respectively. Putting these together, for the average MSA, UIWF can explain approximately 30% of the total increase in house prices and 20% of the total increase in rents,” it added.

The researchers said they found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, essentially creating a demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.

That does explain at least a third of the pain in the home sales market. 

Then one has to ask – how were immigrants affecting home sales? Surely they couldn’t get mortgages?

Well, perhaps some of that increase was due to other individuals buying homes to rent to immigrants, illegal or otherwise, but the quick answer is yes – immigrants of all stripes could get mortgages. 

States like California offer special programs to foreign residents, and sometimes even to illegals (although Newsom did veto the bill for the state program that included them).

…California offers special opportunities for undocumented foreign national who want to buy a home with 0% down home loans. These loans are designed to help make homeownership more affordable for foreign nationals and tackle the housing shortage facing newcomers. Knowing the eligibility criteria and the application steps is important for accessing immigrant home financing options.

Eligibility Criteria for Undocumented Foreign national

Undocumented foreign nationals can qualify for home loan assistance if they meet certain criteria. Here are some key points:

• Legal Status: Some lenders provide loans specifically for undocumented foreign national, despite the challenges they may face.
• Income Verification: It’s essential to show proof of a steady income, even without a Social Security number.
• Creditworthiness: A strong credit score can improve the chances of getting a loan. This highlights the need for financial literacy for home buyers.
• Debt-to-Income Ratio: Lenders often look at this ratio to verify that borrowers can afford their monthly payments.

By satisfying these requirements, undocumented foreign nationals in California can investigate various financing options to secure their homes.

Believe it or not, federal home loan assistance has also been available to immigrants, but this administration moved swiftly to cut off whatever aid in that area they could.

…In March 2025, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it would no longer allow any “non-permanent resident” to receive FHA mortgages, which are designed to help lower-income and first-time homebuyers. The rule blocked those in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, who were brought to the US as children, as well as immigrants with pending asylum claims access to government-backed loans. This reversed a Biden-era policy allowing DACA recipients to receive FHA mortgages.

Mass migration is driving up home prices: HUD report shows foreign-born residents fueled over half of owner-occupied housing growth in CA & NY, spiking costs for American buyers.

This move by @SecretaryTurner ends American taxpayers paying for housing for illegals. pic.twitter.com/8zMAwRJPV3

— Senator Eric Schmitt (@SenEricSchmitt) June 15, 2026

And now Texas Congressman Brandon Gill has a new bill ready to go that would close the federal home loan programs off to legal immigrants, too – U.S. citizens only need apply.

SOLD!

Mortgages from the federal housing agencies would be restricted to US citizens only under new legislation from Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas).

The Homeownership Eligibility Reform Act, shared first with Bloomberg Government, would codify an administrative order making undocumented immigrants ineligible for mortgage insurance under the Federal Housing Administration. The legislation comes as House Republicans push to codify President Donald Trump’s immigration-related executive orders, arguing Democrats will seek to reverse his policies after his term ends.

Home ownership has traditionally been the “pathway to the American dream,” Gill said in an interview. “That’s becoming more and more unattainable.” He said his legislation will make sure government-backed mortgages—which offer lower down payments and less stringent borrowing criteria than conventional loans—are reserved for American citizens.

Gill’s bill details a mortgagor must be a “citizen of the United States” to receive loans. He told Bloomberg Government he seeks to prohibit all “non-permanent” immigrants from securing FHA loans, as well as bar Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from purchasing and securitizing mortgages made to noncitizen borrowers.

…Lawful permanent residents, such as green card holders, are still eligible for FHA loans under the 2025 order. But under Gill’s bill, green card holders would also be blocked from securing or purchasing loans from FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, under his legislation, per Gill’s office.

This just makes sense, and it can’t be another ‘rule.’ It has to be legislation.

Somewhere in this country, a young American family is doing everything right.

They got married. They saved. They worked overtime, cut expenses, and put money aside every month with one goal in mind: buying their first home and building something lasting for their kids.

The… pic.twitter.com/sS5nt7pDmI

— Congressman Brandon Gill (@RepBrandonGill) July 8, 2026

…The average first-time homebuyer in America is now 40 years old, a record high. Home prices relative to income have nearly doubled since 1976. That young family playing by the rules is getting crushed, and Washington has spent years telling them it’s complicated.

It’s not complicated. A new Federal Reserve study found that illegal immigration was responsible for 30% of home price growth and 20% of rent growth between 2021 and 2024.

Biden flooded this country with millions of illegal aliens, every one of them competed for the same finite housing stock that young family was saving for, and Washington subsidized it the entire time with taxpayer-backed mortgage loans that were never meant for noncitizens.

That family deserves better. My Homeownership Eligibility Reform Act restricts taxpayer-backed mortgages to U.S. citizens only, permanently. No future administration can reverse it with the stroke of a pen, and no young American family gets priced out of their dream because Washington decided illegal aliens come first.

I’m fighting back.

This is a net positive on top of every iron the administration has in the fire.

Democrats? Not so much. At the end of June, Rep. Chip Roy released a list of all their great housing fixes included in the big housing bill. Not quite sure how many made it through.

1. Rep Tlaib’s Sec. 207 (H.R. 6768), which is a $200 million affordable housing pilot program to incentivize dense subsidized ‘affordable housing’ units.

2. Sec. 101: ‘reforms’ housing counseling agencies (HCAs) to provide rental dispute services to bad tenants facing lawful eviction. There is no reason we should be providing government-funded counselors to help people derail lawful evictions.

3. Sec. 106: establishes an eviction helpline program. For the same reasons as above, we should not subsidize the derailing of lawful eviction process for bad tenants.

4. A three-year authorization (with a ‘sense of Congress’ that it should be extended permanently) of the controversial Community Development Block Grant Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR) program. The program is controversial because its dispersement has been seriously flawed in the past – payments have taken years to be made,and the allocations have overwhelmingly gone to dense metro areas, ignoring rural communities… it should be scrapped entirely, and disaster repair payments should only be done by FEMA.

5. Indefinitely reauthorizes the HOME grant program and significantly expands the criteria for eligibility.

6. 7-year authorization of what had been an original Senate Pilot program to the Preservation and Reinvestment Initiative for Community Enhancement (PRICE) which authorizes HUD to provide grants to grantees like NGOs, government agencies, and other organizations to purchase trailer parks, on the condition that they charge “affordable” rent.

7. RAD Program: Authorizes the Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) program reauthorization (which the house removed) and increases the cap to 100,000 units. This program is terrible as it provides vouchers for localities to raise money to convert units into long-term section 8 housing.

8. Does nothing to limit Foreign Ownership: Similar to Rep. Stuebe’s amendment to the farm bill on FCOC and FEOC bans on agricultural land purchases, language should have been included for aforeign adversary ban on housing stock purchases… there is no language prohibiting a Chinese citizen or company from buying an American single-family home.

9. Does nothing to  1) Make Sanctuary jurisdictions ineligible for housing grant funding. 2) or Codify Trump’s ‘Mixed Status’ rule, which prohibits the prorating of housing welfare and benefits to households with illegal or ineligible alien residents.

10. Keeps Eviction Moratorium: Included in the CARES Act, was a 30-day eviction moratorium. While most of the CARES Act sunsetted or has been repealed post-COVID, this provision remains on the books.

What a disaster. 

It wasn’t Republicans who ushered in over 20 million illegal invaders thereby raising crime rates, housing costs, ER wait times, drain on public services paid by taxpayers. Get bent,

— NY4547NY (@ny454756314) July 10, 2026

Trump wouldn’t sign it over all the stalling on the SAVE Act, but this is one of those that becomes law if he doesn’t flat-out veto it.

But between Republicans in Congress and HUD Secretary Turner, they are actively working on shutting immigrant access to funding.

Yes, it takes time, but it’s change you can see that these guys are trying to make permanent.

Editor’s Note: We voted for mass deportations, not mass amnesty. Help us continue to fight back against those trying to go against the will of the American people. 

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