Washington and Tehran are locked in a high-stakes contest over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that remains critical to global energy flows.
Any durable arrangement now appears to hinge on Iran reaching terms with Oman while American pressure keeps building.
Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News that Washington is “trying to maximize the amount of oil and gas” coming through the Strait.
The objective is plain, keep supplies moving, ease pressure on energy prices, and deny Iran the power to choke commerce at will.
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Vance said Iranian officials claim they do not intend to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait.
Negotiators are still working through the rules for commercial traffic, a process that demands more than pleasant diplomatic assurances from a regime with a long record of aggression.
“We’re working through how to set up a traffic scheme so the ships can pass through safely,” Vance said.
“That includes Iran committing they won’t fire at commercial vessels.”
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That commitment would be central to restoring confidence among shipping companies and energy markets.
Commercial operators need more than promises before sending valuable vessels and cargo through waters where Iranian forces could quickly turn routine passage into an international crisis.
Vance made clear that the negotiations remain unfinished and that the administration is not treating Iran as a trustworthy partner.
Washington wants energy exports restored to levels seen before the conflict, but it is keeping a skeptical eye on every Iranian assurance.
“We’re in the middle of the game. This thing is not over…our expectation is the same oil and gas come out of the Gulf you saw before the conflict started. The Iranians told us that…but we don’t trust; we verify.”
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That last point is especially important when dealing with Tehran.
Iran has reportedly presented six conditions that must be satisfied before commercial shipping can fully resume through the Strait, adding another layer of uncertainty to talks already shaped by military pressure and economic stakes.
The United States is also blockading Iranian ports and redirecting commercial traffic while negotiations continue.
According to U.S. Central Command, more than 50 commercial vessels had been redirected as of Friday, demonstrating that Washington is pairing diplomacy with hard power rather than relying on Iranian goodwill.
The immediate mission is to protect shipping and stabilize energy markets, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is looking beyond the present standoff.
He believes the strategic importance of the Strait could diminish dramatically as energy infrastructure changes.
Bessent said the Strait will “become irrelevant” within a few years as more oil and gas move through underground pipelines instead of ships navigating the waterway.
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If that forecast proves correct, Iran could lose one of its most potent sources of leverage over global commerce.
Pipelines would provide energy producers with routes that are less exposed to naval threats, maritime disruptions, and Iranian intimidation.
They could also reduce the ability of Tehran to send markets into a panic merely by threatening vessels or raising the possibility of closing the Strait.
Such a transition would not happen overnight, and the Strait remains vital today.
Still, Bessent is signaling that the United States and its partners are preparing to make Iran’s favorite pressure point far less valuable, which is the kind of strategic planning Washington should have embraced long ago.
Multiple news outlets report that the United States and Iran are close to reaching an agreement concerning the Strait.
The details will matter, especially any inspection, enforcement, and verification measures designed to prevent Tehran from treating the deal as another disposable promise.
For now, the administration is pursuing a practical combination of military pressure, commercial redirection, and negotiation.
The goal is to restore energy flows without handing Iran control over the world economy every time its leaders decide they need another bargaining chip.
If new pipelines eventually make the Strait less essential, Bessent’s prediction could mark a major shift in the balance of power across the region.
Iran may still make demands today, but geography will not protect its leverage forever.
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